Francis Hunt
Trading Education, Hunt Volatility Funnel & Capital Preservation
Strategy's claim of disciplined capital allocation does not fit chasing leveraged longs on bitcoin, a high-beta asset that loses 80% of its high-watermark price each cycle. Bitcoin has not yet faced a full 2008-09 or 2000-style rout, and if that comes, Michael Saylor will be toast, a strong possibility. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy could face billions in forced selling if MSCI removes it from its indexes. MSCI is considering exclusion, with its final list due November 11; if it goes through, things could get really ugly for the stock. x.comÂ
Strategy needs a solid bid to preserve the premium that funds its bitcoin purchases. MSCI's new rules could eject it from global indexes and force passive selling; JPMorgan estimates $2.8 billion in Strategy share sales if that happens, or up to $8.8 billion if others follow. Without the premium, it cannot raise funds to buy bitcoin. Watch whether the rules bite on November 30. x.comÂ
Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.comÂ
Strategy is no longer worth owning for bitcoin exposure now that spot bitcoin ETFs exist. Its appeal was as a way to front-run the bitcoin halving before IBIT launched. x.comÂ
Heavy inflows could lift Strive's mNAV above Strategy's for periods because they have more impact on the smaller company. Strive could do even better than 6x versus Strategy's 4x, as investors seek the faster Bitcoin treasury stock. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy's premium is the whole engine of its model, and it is compressing in real time. Per @AdamBLiv, Strategy added about 53,000 bitcoin in three weeks, lifting its stack 7%, while its shares rose only 0.7%. x.comÂ
Falling STRC prices raise its effective yield, increasing Strategy's dividend burden and tying the instrument to occasional Bitcoin sales despite its large holdings. Saylor is promoting STRC's 12% yield paid twice a month, and the higher it is, the faster Strategy sells Bitcoin. Replying to @Blockcastcc's report of Peter Schiff's warning that Bitcoin could fall toward $20,000, Strategy should sell everything and repay: preferred holders can be paid, but common holders would be wiped out. x.com … Show more
Strategy and Strive are absorbing money flows from bond markets worldwide, savings accounts, dividend stocks and every other form of passive income. Strive's SATA preferred took in $21 million of bitcoin-related flows in a single day, a shift whose gravity investors should not underestimate. x.comÂ
Strategy sold some bitcoin after saying it never would, making it the biggest scam company ever. Director Jarrod Patten then sold 22,300 shares in the open market at an average $152.60. x.com x.comÂ