CrediBULL Crypto
Crypto Analyst & Trader
Tesla's future tech may already be priced in, and its valuation relative to the rest of the Mag 7 is inane. Tesla has reportedly been losing EV market share as sales decline, and its chart showed a choppy grind to local highs with a good case for a correction to range lows. It is now down 40% from its highs; even below $200 it would trade at a premium to peers, and the buy zone is around $70, though one bullish argument suggests it holds around $130. x.com x.com x.com
James A. Engle
podcast
Tesla came in in early twenty twenty four, when it was under pressure. Our belief is that cost curves favor EVs. In fact, when we bought Tesla, the Model Y was a significant premium to Toyota Corolla. And today, it's trading almost on top of it in terms of price. And they're more profitable on an operating basis. traffic.libsyn.com
AlvaChallengesEngle argues that improving EV cost curves have brought Model Y pricing close to the Toyota Corolla while preserving higher operating profitability, challenging the thesis's concern about Tesla's competitive position.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The Chinese cars are attractive, technologically advanced — and cheap. An all-electric BYD Song SUV with plenty of power, range, and advanced driving features costs roughly $25,000, almost 40% less than a comparable Tesla Model Y. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsLower-priced Chinese EVs with competitive features strengthen the case that Tesla faces pressure from rivals and that its valuation premium may be difficult to justify.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu said he was encouraged by robo-taxi progress. "Unsupervised miles reached 3.1 million as of Oct. 18, up nearly 9 times in the past three months by our estimates," wrote Yu in a recent report. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesEstimated unsupervised mileage reaching 3.1 million after nearly ninefold growth in three months strengthens the case that Tesla's autonomy technology is moving toward commercial scale, challenging skepticism about its technology premium.
The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
"On automotive margins, excluding credits, increased sequentially from 16.3% to 18.1%. The improvement in margins is driven by a higher mix of deliveries in APAC. While commodity price increases and interest rate changes continue to add to our cost and create further headwinds, we have adjusted the vehicle financing programs to partially offset for such costs." x.com
AlvaMixedTesla's CFO attributes a reported sequential auto-margin increase to more APAC deliveries, while commodity and interest costs pressure margins; the feed's earlier tariff-refund adjustment limits how much the reported margin supports the valuation premium.
Jason Calacanis
LAUNCH founder and early-stage startup investor
Bought ... 3,000 $tsla $357; my 12 month target is $500 x.com
AlvaChallengesCalacanis disclosed buying 3,000 Tesla shares at $357 and targeting $500 in 12 months, a committed bullish position against the thesis's correction case.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
He sees an 80%–90% chance of a Tesla ($TSLA ) merger by 2027, potentially valuing Tesla above $500 per share. x.com
AlvaChallengesIves assigns an 80%-90% chance to a Tesla-SpaceX merger by 2027 with Tesla potentially valued above $500 per share, challenging the thesis's downside targets.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
"The auto business is on track to grow this year after two years of declines, and 2027 should see further upside, supported by demand spurred by FSD, as well as rising exports from [Tesla's Chinese plant] Giga Shanghai." tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesLevy expects Tesla auto sales to return to growth in 2026 and accelerate in 2027 on FSD-driven demand and Shanghai exports, challenging the declining-sales premise.Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
The bank sees a potential SpaceX merger as a major bullish catalyst, alongside accelerating Robotaxi adoption, stronger EV demand and AI-driven energy growth. x.com
AlvaChallengesBarclays' upgrade rests on a potential SpaceX merger plus expected Robotaxi adoption, EV demand and energy growth, a specific bullish challenge to Tesla's downside case.
Earnings Whispers
Financial research and data service, Publisher of earnings expectations, investor sentiment, guidance, and research
Margins climbed across every segment, free cash flow swung from negative to over $1.5 billion, and the cash pile now tops $45 billion. ... Optimus and unsupervised FSD timelines keep sliding to the right, regulators are peeking at the robotaxi, and the chip-fab dreams will cost tens of billions. x.com
AlvaMixedTesla's reported cash balance above $45 billion gives it room to fund future technology, while the post's account of slipping Optimus and unsupervised FSD timelines raises execution risk for that valuation premium.
Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross
Founder and Chief Scientist of Physical Superintelligence, Co-host of Moonshots
If Tesla was really well managed by a Tim Cook like person, it would still be a car company. It trades like a robot company, not like a car company. It would lose 10 times, 10x valuation drop if it traded like a normal car company, even with perfect execution of the cars. traffic.megaphone.fm
AlvaSupportsWissner-Gross estimates Tesla would lose roughly 90% of its value if priced as a conventional carmaker, underscoring how heavily its valuation depends on the robotics thesis.
Hard Fork
Technology News Podcast from The New York Times
And so I think merging them would give him the opportunity to get that control back. And if he wants to throw a ton of money and lose a ton of money in the short term on investing in robots for Tesla, he has more runway to do that if he's got more control, I think. dts.podtrac.com
AlvaMixedCopeland argues that a merger could give Musk more control to fund Tesla robots despite substantial near-term losses, raising the risk that future-tech spending outpaces returns for shareholders.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
"During the three months ended September 30, 2026, we recognized IEEPA tariff refunds of $526 million and $260 million as reductions to energy generation and storage cost of revenues and automotive sales cost of revenues, respectively." tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsTesla's tariff refunds inflated reported gross margins, making the apparent margin beat less compelling as evidence for its valuation premium.
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
Bloomberg Business and Finance Radio Show
It's not a guarantee that it happens, but we do think that there's a more than 90% chance that it happens, measured over a couple of years, the combined entity. ... But it's a smaller opportunity than CyberCab and RoboTaxi, which is hugely cash flow generative. And that would be useful for SpaceX because AI compute in space, driving GrokBot and serving as infrastructure as a service is an even larger opportunity than CyberCab. podtrac.com
AlvaChallengesWinton expects Cybercab and Robotaxi cash flow to fund SpaceX's larger space-based AI opportunity and puts the chance of a merger above 90% over a couple of years, challenging the downside case for Tesla.
Reuters
Global News Agency
In a regulatory filing on Thursday, SpaceX said, "no determination by our special committee has been made regarding any potential combination, and any potential combination would be subject to further approval by our special committee, our board of directors and our controlling shareholder." tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsSpaceX's filing makes Musk's approval necessary despite his recusal from negotiations, adding a governance hurdle to a merger that could otherwise support Tesla's valuation.Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Financial Research Service
I think Tesla is wildly overvalued. I think its latest results offered another proof point of that. ... It is a narrative-driven stock, and the narrative is at odds with what it is actually achieving in the fields of self-driving and robots. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsThe valuation looks difficult to justify if the self-driving and robotics story is running ahead of what Tesla has achieved, reinforcing the thesis that future tech may already be priced in.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
[Quoting Truist analysts: ""We continue to believe these investments will pave the way for TSLA's AI transition, but they will weigh on margins and cash flow for a while"] tradingview.com
AlvaMixedTruist says Tesla's higher operating spending on robotaxis, Cybercab, Optimus and a semiconductor fab could advance its AI transition, but will pressure margins and cash flow in the near term.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Oppenheimer analysts say in a note. Initial Optimus production has started, but the company is going through a pronged ramp as the complexity of the supply chain, manufacturing and training will lead to challenges, the analysts say. This timing will likely disappoint bullish investors. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsOppenheimer says Optimus's initial ramp will face supply-chain, manufacturing and training challenges, likely disappointing bullish investors and weakening the case that the robot's value is already justified in Tesla's price.Reuters
Global News Agency
The electric-car maker's shares nevertheless trade at more than 200 times expected earnings for the year, according to estimates gathered by Visible Alpha. Even as Wall Street's expectations for 2026 operating income crashed by 80% over the past two years and competition with rising Chinese rivals accelerates, Tesla hovers on the promise of self-driving cars and robot butlers. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsWall Street's 2026 operating-income estimates falling 80% in two years while Tesla still trades above 200 times expected earnings strengthens the case that its technology premium is stretched.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta raised his Tesla price target to $430 from $415 on Thursday, citing "higher SpaceX merger probability," adding that merger chatter is likely to "continue to provide downside support for [Tesla] stock." ... "The central pushback is that almost every one of these benefits is already available, or achievable, through joint ventures and arm's-length commercial agreements, so a merger adds concentration and integration risk without unlocking anything new," added Pearson. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedHigher merger odds may support Tesla's share price, but Pearson argues that a combination could add risk without creating new benefits, reinforcing the thesis that Tesla's valuation depends on expectations beyond near-term fundamentals.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
But operating profit of $718 million, was down 56% year over year, missing Wall Street estimates of about $1.4 billion. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThe earnings miss supports the thesis that Tesla's valuation is vulnerable: operating profit fell sharply and came in well below expectations.