Luca - Cryptic Trades
Markets Researcher at Cryptic Trades
MARA is finally selling its bitcoin reserves, which is the right move, but still needs to leave bitcoin mining, a failing business model. Per Lookonchain, MARA sold 23,093 BTC in the first half of 2026 and still holds 35,577. With the hashprice index at all-time lows, this is one of the most inefficient periods to mine in history. Using sale proceeds to pivot to AI/HPC could make MARA a really good opportunity in the coming weeks and months, if management has finally woken up. x.com
MARA struggles fundamentally because management has failed to make the tough call of using its bitcoin reserve to move into AI/HPC. Markets are not rewarding companies with stagnant or declining bitcoin reserves, as with Strategy, and staying competitive in mining while copying Strategy's reserve model has required enormous, ongoing dilution through ATM share sales. With hashprice at an all-time low, IREN and Cipher Mining are preferred for moving fast into AI/HPC and winning the big contracts. x.com
MARA's management is clearly clueless, having sold 25% of its bitcoin after a 25–30% drop while sitting years behind peers in the AI data-center transition. The company could be really undervalued if management got it together, but there are much better places for capital unless it cleans house or sells to an operator that can manage the assets better. A renewed bitcoin rally could warrant another look. x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin appears near a local bottom: MARA's reported sale of 996 BTC is another contrarian bottom indicator. x.com
MARA is a better buy now as an AI company than as a bitcoin company, and retiring its convertible notes was smart because it also removed the hedged shorts tied to them. The stock is up 35% since @qthomp called a death spiral imminent after MARA sold over $1B of bitcoin near $72,000. Miners have been unwinding bitcoin as a balance-sheet asset for over two years; public miners sold 60k BTC in 2022. x.com
MARA lacks vision because CEO Fred Thiel keeps bouncing between strategies, from bitcoin treasury company to AI data-center play. Per @Tsuff101, he opposed the AI pivot and bought tens of thousands of bitcoin during the treasury hype, only for MARA to later sell 20K BTC around $60K, and now sounds more bullish on AI infrastructure than mining. He is late to the space, and his turning bullish is if anything a contrarian signal. x.com
Bitdeer's mining business may support meaningful value even if Bitcoin stays near $80,000, giving its speculative AI case a second engine. Its cash-contribution chart assumes 15,720 BTC mined annually at $61,051 cash cost per BTC, implying $298M at $80,000 Bitcoin, versus a roughly $2.2B valuation. Making its own SEALMINER rigs gives it more control over technology, costs and expansion. This remains a speculative buy with substantial downside risk. x.com x.com
MARA's sale of 15.1k BTC, about $1.1B, is balance-sheet discipline, not capitulation. It used the proceeds to retire $1B of convertible notes at a 9% discount, cutting debt from $3.3B to $2.3B and reducing future dilution risk. MARA is also converting US mining sites into hyperscale AI infrastructure through a joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures, a real hedge since mining is cyclical but AI demand is structural. Its bitcoin treasury remains intact. x.com x.com
High interest rates curb leveraged Bitcoin speculation while new investment opportunities compete for limited capital. AI companies are taking on heavy debt, SpaceX recently went public and Anthropic is preparing an IPO; many beaten-down AI stocks may offer a better chance of doubling than Bitcoin. With Bitcoin below $80,000, $70,000 is more likely than $90,000 from here. x.com
Bitcoin's best days may be behind it, since the major Bitcoin miners are all selling AI compute rather than managing a blockchain, which can't be a good sign. GPUs have a much more important role in AI compute. Despite endless promises of use cases, gold is probably still easier to use than Bitcoin in most places, and stablecoins are hardly a convincing answer to what the space has built of value, raising the question of the point of a monetary system that can't really be used. x.com x.com
MARA has outsized upside leverage to its infrastructure projects, an obvious pick for that trade. With Bitcoin at $60,000, a delay in either of its projects would create major funding issues, and that same sensitivity gives similar juice on the upside. x.com
TeraWulf stands out among bitcoin miners pivoting to AI data centers because its massive 20-year Anthropic deal gives it real legitimacy, and some capacity is already energized, moving it beyond pure hype. Plenty of execution and buildout risk remains before that partnership produces, and the chart is losing its uptrend line, suggesting more short-term chop. Long term, it should do well if the buildout goes well and the AI revolution is real. x.com
