MilliΞ
Prediction Markets, Ethereum & Privacy, Supporter of Trueo
Lido looks like a DeFi value play because it is effectively an Ethereum treasury company that also earns staking revenue on $20B of assets. Per @A_Leutenegger, its treasury, mostly stETH, is about $157M, sizeable for a token with a ~$300M market cap, while headcount fell 15% and expenses 13% year over year. The protocol earns roughly $1M a week at current ETH prices. The main growth bet is ETH appreciating over the next 5-10 years. x.com x.com x.com
Lido is the levered way to play a flight to safety into traditional liquid staking after the rsETH episode. Capital is rotating rather than simply fleeing: liquid restaking is bleeding while standard liquid staking tokens hold up, with stETH the cleanest expression, and the spread between them should widen as the rsETH saga drags through governance. x.com
Tokenization and demand for real economics make DeFi lending, spot and yield tokens extremely appealing on risk-reward. This unrivaled trend will grow DeFi value 50x or more over multiple years, and fast. The altcoin bear market is forcing better token structures: Ethena, Uniswap and Aave are improving unit economics, Chainlink to some extent. Battle-tested Pendle and Morpho, with efficient businesses and institutional ties, will re-rate hard. A DeFi Summer return is nearly certain. x.com
ETH is undervalued because collateral and staking create demand L1 fees miss. Aave V3 has 2.2M WETH supplied and 1.75M borrowed on Ethereum. Yet Base reportedly paid Ethereum ~$15K for September data publishing versus $711K to the Optimism Collective, showing weak L1 capture. Absolute stablecoin growth matters more than share, but is not itself ETH demand. The case strengthens when activity creates sustained demand to hold, borrow against or stake ETH, or raises fee burn relative to issuance. … Show more
Meteora, Pump.fun, Raydium, Orca and Lido are pick-and-shovel protocols with improving fundamentals and low valuations, each leading its market. MET is +120% with $6.8M revenue at 2.9x P/S; PUMP +10% with $63.0M at 3.4x; RAY +152% with $6.8M at 7.9x; ORCA +57% with $1.3M at 9.1x; and LDO +17% with $3.2M at 9.3x. x.com
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.com
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.com
US crypto's regulatory discount could start narrowing as Trump urges Congress to pass a fair CLARITY Act, while Treasury long-bond buybacks ease pressure at the long end. Ether gains as institutional DeFi, stablecoin, tokenization and settlement activity concentrates on Ethereum; Chainlink as clearer rules bring more assets onchain; Aave as stablecoin and tokenized-asset growth lifts lending demand. Tron is a smaller, tactical pick on its stablecoin distribution. x.com
Bitmine's new Ethereum staking locks more supply and signals institutional conviction. It staked 159,728 ETH, worth about $390 million, on October 20-21, bringing total staked holdings to about 5.23 million ETH. The view is cautiously bullish, without chasing: a daily close above $2,500 could target the 30-day average at $2,579, while a drop below $2,380 signals renewed weakness. x.com
Ethereum is becoming the backbone of onchain finance, driving structural institutional demand, and lower prices are a gift. Institutions such as ETFs, corporates and reserves control about 10.7% of ETH supply, corporate treasuries 6%, and staking locks up 29-30%. Ethereum holds 55-56%+ of the tokenized real-world asset market and 74% of tokenized US Treasuries, with BlackRock, JPMorgan, PayPal and Deutsche Bank building on it. The weekly chart keeps making higher lows. x.com
Ethereum's layer-2 networks are insanely bullish long term because they give every major institution a substrate to build on while reinforcing the use of ETH. There is no good reason to build a modular chain anywhere else, and today's very low fees to do so, without running your own consensus, are a feature, not a bug. Expect many more L2s in the next few years. The L2 roadmap did pull focus from L1 scaling, which is still needed, but zk proving will get there. x.com x.com
