Luca - Cryptic Trades
Markets Researcher at Cryptic Trades
Healthcare stocks such as UnitedHealth, Hims & Hers and Eli Lilly offer significant upside beyond their defensive role, with a key catalyst in a rotation away from crowded semis and tech toward sectors that have consolidated for a long time. Many healthcare names still trade inside large high-timeframe accumulation ranges, making them suitable for gradual position building while diversifying a portfolio. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' peptide capabilities may be underappreciated, setting up a strong bounce after peptide news. Per @riyadosofian, it is the only telehealth company with a peptide facility and global distribution system. A strong bounce is expected now as the stock holds outside its wedge. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers could gain a massive new growth opportunity if peptide access expands after the White House completed its review of the FDA's interim policy. Six peptides, including BPC-157, TB-500 and MOTS-c, could gain expanded access; Hims is preparing treatments. The potential market is $2B-$3B. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers looks bearish on news that Chinese producers are moving into bootleg peptides sold in the US. Per a WSJ report shared by @tradfi, Chinese fentanyl precursor producers are pivoting to selling bootleg peptides in the US, and several Chinese peptide vendors were previously indicted in the US over the fentanyl trade. x.comÂ
Peptides could fast-track Hims & Hers' patient network like Harry Potter did for Amazon. Its US-based supply chain, manufacturing and clinical network could serve new demand. The FDA's interim compounding policy cleared White House review and may be released any day, potentially allowing certain peptides; Lee Rosebush says six are in Category 1. The policy's terms remain unknown. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
RFK Jr.'s health department's notice that the FDA will not take action against pharmacies compounding six unapproved peptides brings Hims & Hers' peptide opportunity forward. Pharmacies can offer BPC-157, TB-500, epitalon, KPV, MOTS-c and semax now while a formal rule change is worked on. This is the most bullish news for Hims & Hers. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers faces mounting headwinds from an FTC lawsuit and a setback to its peptide expansion. The FTC alleges deceptive subscription practices and improper sharing of sensitive health data with ad platforms. An FDA advisory panel also voted against adding emideltide to the 503A Bulks List, a blow to Hims' peptide and compounding plans. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' newly previewed Peptides+ offering could add a growth vertical to its healthcare platform. Management plans access to sermorelin, glutathione and NAD+; recent regulatory developments may also open a path for BPC-157 and TB-500, subject to further conditions. Rollout and commercial opportunity remain unproven, and margins and execution are still risks. x.comÂ
A draft HHS policy opening a regulated path for peptides advances Hims & Hers' peptide opportunity. CEO Andrew Dudum says its planned Peptides+ rollout would use clinician-led protocols and a fully US-based manufacturing and supply chain; the policy is still a draft. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' peptide business looks undifferentiated with relatively low barriers to entry, since nothing about providing peptides appears proprietary. Its edge would have to be scale and distribution, and it is not clear it is far ahead of other telehealth companies there. @JonahLupton notes Barron's said Hims could own 20% of the peptide market. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers is a sentiment-driven stock, and peptide enthusiasm should return as actual peptide revenue gets closer. The peptide excitement has faded as expected, leaving shares around $27, an attractive fundamental setup. x.comÂ