Scaling Tesla's robotaxi fleet to 5,000 could yield a $584 million annual revenue run rate by year-end. The model assumes 24/7 operation, 40 daily rides per vehicle averaging five miles, 70% utilization, and current fares of $3 plus $1 per mile. A 5,000-vehicle fleet by year-end is now the expectation; introducing Cybercabs in other states could keep growth going at its current pace. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's growing Cybercab robotaxi registrations set up the next burn for short sellers. Texas registrations rose by 81 today to 544, per the state registry data shown in the chart. x.com 

Tesla's robotaxi service is not reliable enough for customers to replace a car. Per @koby_pierce, the Houston geofence is about 26% smaller than advertised; Tesla used a rocket-shaped map that misled customers about reachable coverage. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's Austin robotaxi rollout looks to have hit an inflection point because activity is scaling rapidly. A RtaxiTracker chart shared by Jason Scharf shows Tesla at 438,000 per week in the week to October 18, versus Waymo's 406,000-per-week Q2 2026 average. Waymo's figure is older and quarterly averaged, so the periods are not directly comparable. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's FSD uptake could add recurring software revenue to its vehicle base, while Robotaxi could earn on each ride. This could be Tesla's most important inflection point, missed amid weak auto profits. North American attach rates rose to 75% from 55% in Q2; subscriptions hit 1.74 million, up 67% year over year, and Cybercab rides began in Austin. Trials may not become lasting paid subscriptions; Robotaxi needs safe operation, steady paying demand and attractive returns at scale. x.com 

Tesla's delivery beat is already priced in, making it bearish heading into Wednesday's earnings. Auto margins and FSD/Robotaxi are the key items to watch. x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab ramp is gaining ground against Waymo in Austin. Robotaxi Tracker puts Tesla at 438,000 robotaxi miles in the week to October 18, versus Waymo's 406,000 weekly average in Q2 2026; Waymo's data lag means this is not a same-week comparison. x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab may command a premium because it offers a much better ride. It seems to earn over $3 per mile, making Tesla a cash generator for now, though that pricing may not last. Q4 robotaxi miles already appear above Q3 with less than a third of the quarter elapsed; paid miles are tracking for over 3x quarterly growth. Grok roughly estimates Tesla's robotaxi annual revenue run rate at $100-150M versus Waymo's $390-500M; Tesla is on pace to overtake Waymo within months. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's FSD continues to drive sales as its physical AI strategy takes shape. Attach rates top 75% of North American deliveries, active subscriptions have reached 1.74 million, up 67% year on year, and Optimus production has begun. Those developments also dovetail with the strategic fit of a SpaceX merger. x.com