Bobby A
Swing Trader, Publisher of Axe Market Edge Report
Bitcoin should hit $100k before $40k because investors holding out for a historical 80% correction or an October low are ignoring a highly bullish higher-timeframe technical setup. A 55% correction is a worthwhile discount 17 years after bitcoin's creation, and the market will punish those greedy for more. x.comÂ
Bitcoin ETF demand has snapped back despite continued Ethereum ETF outflows. Bitcoin ETFs drew $301.2M last week after $1.77B left the two products over the prior two weeks; Ethereum ETFs lost $220.7M. Bitcoin rose one year after all four previous US midterms, with the next nine days away. Per @0xCryptoChan, prior recovery tops or subtops came 78-85 days after crossing the 3-6 month holder cost-basis line. Now at day 65, the next 2-3 weeks could get wild, though ETFs have changed cycle timing. … Show more
Bitcoin's resilient spot ETF holders support a tentative June-bottom call. Holdings fell only 11% while Bitcoin fell 53%, its shallowest bear market versus 77% and 84% in the last two; ETFs have since added 87,000 BTC. The bounce stayed strong amid higher yields. Galaxy Research says the bear market ended in June, citing less long-term-holder selling and five weekly closes above the 50-week average; it would reconsider on a weekly close below that average, near $76,540. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin needs buyers to return as ETF demand reverses sharply: Eliteonchain reports $321.6M of inflows over October's first four trading sessions followed by $729M of outflows over the next two, including withdrawals from IBIT and FBTC. x.comÂ
Institutional demand for Bitcoin still looks strong. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $986.9M of net inflows this week, about $3.8B over the last three weeks, with BlackRock adding $117.4M of bitcoin on Friday alone. x.comÂ
Bitcoin demand is back. Bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million in a single day, their biggest inflow day of the year. x.comÂ
The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin sentiment looks to be bottoming, and sentiment bottoms before price. While crypto's obituary is being written, with Saylor $9.7B underwater, Eric Trump's miner down $600M and BTC at $64k, Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs just logged their first week of net inflows since May. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.comÂ
Wealth-manager allocations are adding to Bitcoin's institutional bid, rather than reflecting retail FOMO. CoinMarketCap reports early Q3 filings show managers adding Bitcoin ETF shares; the biggest holders have yet to report. Their next 13F filings must confirm the buying before it can be called an advisory-channel habit. x.comÂ