Robinhood's Q3 report still looks solid despite misses against tough year-ago peak crypto and equity comps. Revenue missed slightly; the EPS miss looks tied to $67M of unrealized mark-to-market losses primarily related to its RVI fund, explaining the drawdown. Its new banking feature looks frictionless: send cash by text without recipients needing Robinhood accounts, a nice Zelle alternative versus its partner bank. Robinhood is cyclical, unlike compounding SoFi, though both are great. x.com  … Show more

Robinhood's growing non-crypto businesses make its trading-app valuation look too low. Gold subscribers rose 34% to 5.2 million, platform assets reached $396 billion, and 14 business lines now each generate over $100 million annually. Overweight with a $115 target, despite a weak report: deposits fell to $15.7 billion from $22 billion and net interest income dropped 9% as rates declined. x.com  x.com 

Interactive Brokers is a fantastic business because it is basically a tech company. Its fully automated platform keeps costs low, supporting operating margins above 70% and the industry's lowest fees, and one account can trade almost anything in over 150 markets, a scale no rival matches. Its software is too complex for beginners, leaving the mass market to competitors like Robinhood, and complex international regulation is costly. It is a powerful cash machine with a great moat. x.com 

Robinhood's position as the first true institution to come on-chain may give it staying power beyond a hype cycle. Hype cycles come and go, but it is too early to count Robinhood out; its presence is unlikely to disappear over the long term. x.com 

Robinhood's earnings miss leaves its revenue vulnerable to a market correction. Revenue could shrink further if the market corrects; a better entry may emerge over the next six months, but that is not assured. x.com 

Interactive Brokers' 31% account growth is no one-quarter phenomenon, because retail trading is increasingly international and less US-centric. With under 5 million accounts versus Robinhood's roughly 27 million, it could add 3 million in a year or even beat Robinhood's 10 million in 2021, as traders now accept less user-friendly platforms, as Polymarket shows. Its valuation is no longer anomalous versus peers, but modest multiple expansion and a few more such quarters point to roughly 2x. x.com 

Robinhood's thesis has changed as retail trading volume trends down alongside Bitcoin weakness. Volume fell for two straight months, a US strategic bitcoin reserve now looks off the table as central banks chose gold, and agentic AI tools like Claude could soon deliver great trading experiences. Retail churn from gambling-style trading will further reduce activity, and replacing it is far harder than retaining high-net-worth accounts. x.com  x.com 

Robinhood is oozing free cash flow despite the less favorable market. At 27x forward free cash flow, it is an undeniable bargain, and the stock is unlikely to get much cheaper. The near-term outlook is not particularly exciting, but risk appetite will return and investors will trade aggressively again; a crypto recovery would light a spark under the business. The $185 target by end-2027 remains. x.com 

Robinhood's growing prediction markets, options and Gold subscriptions make the $90s one of the most exciting times to buy. Q3 event-contract revenue reached $173 million, up over sixfold, options rose 31% to $399 million, and Gold subscribers reached a record 5.2 million. Crypto revenue fell 55% year over year to $120 million, and Dr. Crossroads reported misses on revenue and EPS; Robinhood remains a great buy as its international reach and banking services expand. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Robinhood is too dependent on crypto to touch. x.com