The US dollar should strengthen because rates now price a full Fed hike within the next 12 months. That bid for the dollar would pressure commodities, crypto and long-duration risk assets. The view changes if Fed chair Kevin Warsh clearly signals unwillingness to hike, which he might. x.com 

The US dollar should go higher because the Fed will have to hike and oil is rising, keeping a 105 DXY target intact. Long-end yields rose by the equivalent of a rate hike even as the short end fell. Recent weakness looks like a positioning unwind plus a suspected Bank of Japan yen intervention, a 3.5% move in two hours. The 100 range on DXY needs to hold. x.com  x.com 

The US dollar index may extend a little further to 105.8 before heading down to 93-95, following the same playbook as before Trump's election, when it was searching for macro exit liquidity and then fell after he took office. As in late 2024, when crypto rallied while the dollar climbed, bitcoin could reach $90,000-100,000 before the midterms with the DXY near 105.8. Longer term, a world moving toward stable peace would reduce safe-haven demand and weaken the dollar. x.com 

The US dollar remains an easy long as the Fed turns hawkish, since the only way to control prices now is on the demand side, and that means rates go up. Kashkari's latest comments raise the question of whether the Fed has learned its lesson or is drifting toward Team Transitory 2.0. x.com 

The US dollar is becoming a black hole for global liquidity, driven by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and a wave of AI-driven capital flowing back into US tech. Net long dollar positions have surged to $29.4 billion. BofA cut its EUR/USD target to 1.15 from 1.20 and now expects three more hikes this year, while Man Group sees another 5% dollar upside by year-end. This is an AI-monopoly story as much as a rate story, with capital leaving stagnant overseas markets to fund US computing. … Show more

The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.com 

The US dollar looks more bullish than bearish because it is priced against other currencies that are hit harder by oil. Most countries' bond yields are rising, not just America's, and the US has the world's most dominant economy, which AI is accelerating relative to others. Still, trading currencies makes little sense when stocks are rising 25%+ a year. x.com 

The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The dollar cycle has likely peaked because the Fed's next move is going to be a cut. Supply-shock demand destruction is doing the Fed's job and a strong dollar is doing the rest, so rates should fall, the dollar weaken, and duration assets, commodities and emerging markets reprice. A soon-ish end to the war should work against this view, but even if it drags on much longer, the rates curve has priced it in through the end of 2026. x.com 

The US dollar gets a tailwind from Japan's yen intervention, which @zerohedge says comes at a perfect time for the dollar. x.com