Justin Bons
Founder & CIO of Cyber Capital, Crypto Researcher Since 2013
NEAR should be valued as a well-rounded layer-1 rather than for one use case, since its intents do not generate meaningful revenue and their network effects are relatively weak. Judged that way it is strong, with good governance, technology and economics, and it is time for the good L1s to rise. x.comÂ
NEAR is an AI-native blockchain and a pioneer of chain abstraction, and its run from $1.90 to $4.27 is not done yet. x.comÂ
NEAR's fundamentals are strengthening alongside its price. It generated solid fee revenue in 2025-2026, and Confidential Payments and Confidential Intents are improving privacy and security on the network. After its breakout from a 14-month falling wedge, a break of the $3 resistance would start the next leg up. x.comÂ
NEAR's $2.4 billion market cap already prices it as a major AI and apps layer, so the success of NEAR Intents does not justify the valuation. Intents is a strong bridging product and handled over $200 million of volume in about a day, per @andyyy, but it earns only about $1.5 million in annualized revenue, and valuing NEAR as a bridge is not very bullish. This may be a midcurve take. x.comÂ
NEAR's tokenomics could tighten further. A new governance proposal would cut annual issuance from 2.5% to 1.6% over two years, a further 36% reduction after inflation was already halved from 5% in 2025. Fewer new tokens alongside growing network revenue can only be bullish for NEAR. x.comÂ
NEAR's buyback flywheel is turning: NEAR Intents had its biggest revenue week ever last week, and $500,000 of NEAR was bought back. x.comÂ
NEAR can never be money, so any monetary or privacy premium ascribed to the token will flow to permissionless neutral protocols like Zcash and, to a lesser degree, Monero. NEAR's freezing of funds from the Bitget hack was the right business decision, but it shows that programmability creates governance surface area that is antithetical to money. The NEAR chain made about $150k in 30 days, Intents $1.7M and perps $61k, an insane multiple for something that isn't money. x.com x.com x.comÂ
NEAR looks headed higher, with quantum-ready accounts adding to its technology case: co-founder Illia Polosukhin says users can update their account keys to be post-quantum today without moving assets. x.com x.comÂ
NEAR, Hyperliquid, Uniswap and Pump.fun benefit from the scarcity of quality crypto tokens, which is extremely bullish for the few that are actually good. With few good tokens, selection is easier, fewer positions are needed and more capital flows into the same winners. Per the quoted post, only about 20 projects generate around $50k+ in daily holder revenue. DefiIgnas adds that revenue tokens get less attractive the higher the price goes if revenue doesn't pick up. x.com x.comÂ
NEAR feels like an older, inflationary tech coin that has had its time in the sun, even if the case makes some sense on paper. A post the author replies to describes selling all NEAR and rotating into Zcash and Hyperliquid because conviction in it never grew. x.comÂ
NEAR could benefit from a fragmented crypto market because Intents earns fees on crosschain liquidity, with some revenue buying NEAR. Intents processed $34.2B across 37 chains; its buyback wallet holds about 1.4M NEAR. Confidential TVL reached $150.3M, up 345% in 90 days, and its 30-day volume share rose to 29%. Private execution could attract larger participants; fee-paying demand from AI agents remains unproven. These on-chain metrics support more appropriate repricing. x.com x.comÂ
