Tulip King
Head of Strategy at CounterpartyTV, Crypto Investor
Robinhood is a way to front-run Wall Street catching up to onchain stocks, an early narrative with plenty of room to run. Crypto traders should love tokenized stocks, which open a potentially uncapped new revenue field for Robinhood. Its chain is already congested with volume, and buying assets that cannot keep up with demand, like Ethereum when it was congested, has paid off before. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's position as the first true institution to come on-chain may give it staying power beyond a hype cycle. Hype cycles come and go, but it is too early to count Robinhood out; its presence is unlikely to disappear over the long term. x.comÂ
Robinhood's management says it can 10x the business over the next decade as it expands beyond trading into prediction markets, tokenization and banking. Q2 revenue rose 32% to $1.31B, Gold subscribers reached 4.8M and platform assets $384B by August. Event contracts traded 13.6B in Q2, up more than 10x. Robinhood Chain went live July 1, stock tokens are available in over 120 countries, and the SEC opened a five-year pathway for tokenized US stock trading. Banking has passed $3B in deposits. … Show more
Robinhood's earnings miss leaves its revenue vulnerable to a market correction. Revenue could shrink further if the market corrects; a better entry may emerge over the next six months, but that is not assured. x.comÂ
Robinhood is oozing free cash flow despite the less favorable market. At 27x forward free cash flow, it is an undeniable bargain, and the stock is unlikely to get much cheaper. The near-term outlook is not particularly exciting, but risk appetite will return and investors will trade aggressively again; a crypto recovery would light a spark under the business. The $185 target by end-2027 remains. x.comÂ
Robinhood's growing non-crypto businesses make its trading-app valuation look too low. Gold subscribers rose 34% to 5.2 million, platform assets reached $396 billion, and 14 business lines now each generate over $100 million annually. Overweight with a $115 target, despite a weak report: deposits fell to $15.7 billion from $22 billion and net interest income dropped 9% as rates declined. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's growth looks more reliant on wallet share and the market backdrop because customer and active-user growth are weak. Revenue rose 12%, accounts 7% year over year, and net new funded accounts slowed one quarter after acquisition was re-prioritized; adjusted EPS growth unexpectedly turned negative. New customers grew at a mid-single-digit rate and monthly active users fell. MAU is volatile, but needs to improve next quarter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood gains a new growth leg as the SEC opens the door to tokenized stocks in the US and it launches a tokenized-equities pilot. Robinhood Chain revenue is tracking past $100 million a year, and crypto rallied despite a Fed hike, with bitcoin back above $76,000. Shares held 104.42, where the 50-day EMA, the 0.618 retracement and the cloud floor converge; 110.91 would put them back above the cloud, and 114.92 would mean sellers are done. x.comÂ
Robinhood's setup is starting to look dangerous again, making it worth getting back into. x.comÂ
Robinhood looks like a tough hold because it is the poster child for retail speculation, and overcrowded AI stocks have already been hit. Per Bloomberg, retail traders' best picks are on track for their worst month since 2022. x.comÂ
Robinhood has many strong potential tailwinds stacking up: strong customer growth, Trump accounts creating new lifelong customers, prediction-market growth, tokenized equities and a crypto rebound. It needs only one of these to do well to perform strongly, and hitting a home run on all of them would be far better. x.comÂ
