Rekt Fencer
Founder of X DAO, Crypto Trading Guides
Samsung, SK hynix and Micron could lead the crash just as they led the rally, now that the memory cycle is turning. The three control about 90% of global DRAM, with shares of 37%, 29.9% and 22.9%, and memory prices drove the AI boom higher. A quoted post adds that they are being sued for allegedly engineering the DRAM shortage by using the AI boom as cover to cut regular memory supply, with DRAM prices up 500-700%. x.com
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The risk is that if at some point AI spending falters, then Micron and its memory chip peers will find that PC and smartphone customers have already pulled back on hardware spending and are unable to fill the gap. So far there's no real indication of a pullback in AI investment. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedWeakened PC and smartphone spending could leave memory producers more exposed to an AI slowdown, although AI investment is currently holding up.
zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
Flash Crash: Kioxia Warns NAND Price Surge Ending, Sending Sandisk Plunging x.com
AlvaSupportsAn end to the NAND price surge would support a memory-cycle turn; the warning is reported by Zerohedge.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
PC shipments fell about 20% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to International Data Corp. The reason: Computer-memory prices have skyrocketed because of unprecedented memory demand for AI computing. As a result, PC manufacturers are focusing on higher-priced computers, reducing sales volumes. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsA measured 20% decline in PC shipments, linked here to soaring memory costs, strengthens evidence that the AI-driven price squeeze is shrinking a major conventional-memory end market.
Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
Tokyo Electron QSep26 ... 2H SPE guided to $9.9B, +24% h/h; Memory grows to 49% of the mix (DRAM 35%, NAND 14%) from 43% in 1H x.com
AlvaMixedGrowing memory-equipment spending signals continued investment strength while increasing the prospect of future supply additions that could erode memory pricing power.
The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Kioxia Holdings: ... —Q3 revenue & profit expected to reach record highs for the fourth consecutive quarter ... —Kioxia's entire CY2027 production capacity is already sold out x.com
AlvaChallengesFully sold-out 2027 capacity and an outlook for another record quarter strengthen demand visibility and weigh against an imminent flash-memory downturn.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Kioxia H1 FY27 Results (YoY, JPY): "Sales prices significantly increased, driving the majority of this quarter’s revenue growth" ... — Gross Profit: +1,676.0% to 3.43T (80.8% margin) x.com
AlvaChallengesPrice-driven revenue growth and an 80.8% gross margin provide further evidence of strong flash-memory pricing, weighing against an immediate memory-cycle downturn.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The WSJ's Rolfe Winkler reports ... Two years ago, Apple bought nearly twice the flash storage of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google combined. Hyperscalers are now buying double Apple's share. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesHyperscalers overtaking Apple in flash purchases strengthens AI-driven demand and suppliers' bargaining power, weighing against a near-term reversal in memory pricing.zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
“The point at which hyperscalers shift from needing more capacity at almost any cost to optimizing returns on what they’ve already built is the one I’d really worry about” - Goldman Delta-one x.com
AlvaSupportsA shift from capacity buildout to return optimization would weaken the AI-driven demand supporting memory prices, reinforcing the risk that memory leaders could lead a downturn.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
ChangXin Memory Technologies, as it is officially known, has been using the AI windfall to expand capacity and advance its technology ... The company said revenue surged to 269.02 billion yuan, equivalent to $40.39 billion, for the January-September period, from 32.08 billion yuan a year earlier tradingview.com
AlvaMixedMore than eightfold nine-month revenue growth and reinvestment in capacity and technology strengthen the competitive threat to the three incumbents, even as the windfall reflects continued memory shortages.
Reuters
Global News Agency
ChangXin Memory Technologies reported net profit attributable to shareholders of 54.4 billion yuan ($8.17 billion) for the three months ended September 30. CXMT's third-quarter revenue grew 613% year-on-year to 118.7 billion yuan. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedRapid revenue growth and a substantial profit strengthen a Chinese challenger to the dominant producers, while the AI-driven price increases behind the results point to continued memory-cycle strength.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Mikhail Zverev says. ... "To have such demand destruction because of the memory cost and availability, which obviously is caused by AI pull, just shows that AI is crowding out so many things in the digital economy." tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsAI-driven competition for memory is damaging PC demand through higher costs and limited availability, reinforcing the risk that the memory boom undermines conventional end markets.
Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
TrendForce: ... 4Q26 PC DRAM contract price increases confirmed at +13–18% QoQ, moderating from +18–23% in 3Q26. ... Notebook shipments fell 14% QoQ in 3Q26 and are forecast to decline another 9% in 4Q26. OEM DRAM inventories rose from 6–9 weeks at the end of 3Q26 to 7–10 weeks in early 4Q26, with further accumulation expected during the quarter. x.com
AlvaMixedFalling notebook shipments and accumulating DRAM inventories strengthen the risk of an order correction, while continued double-digit contract-price increases show that pricing has yet to turn down.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Saxo Markets chief investment strategist Charu Chanana said. "Over time, new manufacturing facilities, additional memory production and greater availability of computing infrastructure could reduce shortages and put pressure on pricing," tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsAdditional memory production and new facilities could ease shortages and pressure prices, supporting the risk of a supply-driven downturn for the leading producers.
Zephyr
AI & Semiconductor Analyst at Citrini Research
"TAM will be down 10% on a unit basis" Zinsner is too optimistic. PC unit sales will take a 20% hit next year x.com
AlvaSupportsZephyr forecasts a 20% PC-unit decline in 2027, twice Intel's estimate, implying a deeper contraction in an important end market for conventional memory.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
SK Hynix's free operating cash flow is likely to grow further in 4Q after jumping 4.5-fold from a year earlier in 3Q, sufficiently covering its expected increase in capital expenditure, CreditSights' Nicholas Chen and Pius Xue say. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesProjected cash-flow growth sufficient to fund higher capex points to continued financial strength at SK hynix, weighing against an imminent deterioration in the memory leaders' operations.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
I think Intel badly underestimated how quickly higher memory prices would hit PC demand and trigger an inventory correction. ... Management acknowledged them, but still expected client revenue to hold roughly flat in Q3, supported by CPU inventory replenishment. That assumption now looks too optimistic. x.com
AlvaSupportsJukan argues that Intel's reliance on inventory replenishment led it to underestimate the speed of memory-driven PC weakness, reinforcing the risk that earnings expectations lag deteriorating downstream demand.
Intel Corporation
Software and Hardware Developer Community
We do not expect a sustained recovery until memory availability improves and pricing begins to normalize. For 2027, we're planning for the PC unit TAM to decline roughly 10%.
AlvaSupportsA projected roughly 10% PC-unit market decline in 2027 extends the downstream demand damage, with sustained recovery dependent on better memory availability and more normal pricing.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Founder & CEO of Social Capital, Co-Founder & CEO of 8090
The makers are using their record cash to expand production capacity. New factories are scheduled to arrive from 2027 to 2029. China’s DRAM champion, CXMT, is expanding too, with its share of global DRAM revenue jumping from 4% to 10% in just a year, according to Counterpoint. ... The next memory bust does not need SI to stop growing. The last two downturns began with customers working through inventory. x.com
AlvaSupportsCXMT's reported share gains and planned industry capacity additions strengthen reversal risk; Palihapitiya argues that customer inventory digestion could trigger a bust even while AI demand grows.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
$INTC CEO: ... The pace of this PC correction has accelerated over the last two months. As our OEM partners are aggressively managing inventory to match the softer sell-through. x.com
AlvaSupportsAn accelerating PC correction and aggressive OEM inventory management could reduce memory orders as manufacturers adjust to weaker end demand.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Intel says a slowdown across the personal computer market driven by a shortage of memory technology weighed on its results in the third quarter. The client computing and physical AI group, which includes its PC business, reports a 5% decline in revenue to $7.3 billion. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsA realized decline in Intel's PC-related revenue tied to memory shortages strengthens evidence that tight supply and high costs are damaging downstream demand.
