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Gary Black

Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager of The Future Fund

22 Oct, 19:33Latest

Tesla's FSD attachment figures leave durable paid demand unclear because retention three to six months after the free trial is unknown. Some analysts estimate effective attachment at 30%-40%, and CFO Taneja's selective answers breed skepticism. Management's aspirational targets alone cannot justify Tesla's 175x 2027 P/E and 73x 2027 EV/EBITDA; competitors' actions, customer feedback and supplier activity also matter. Negative earnings revisions and commoditizing autonomy sustain caution. x.com x.com x.com x.com

TSLA

21 Oct, 23:38

Tesla's margin and cash-flow beats initially pointed to more than a 1% after-hours gain if Musk reiterated the board's review of a SpaceX combination. Auto margin ex-credits was 18.1% vs 16.7% expected; FCF was $1.5B vs a $5B burn expected, largely from lower capex. FSD attach rose to 75% from 55%, but shares later fell 3% AH. Tesla's CFO did not directly answer an RBC analyst's question about whether paid attach was only 30%-40%; a 7% pre-earnings run-up could also explain the decline. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

TSLA

James A. Engle

30 Oct, 08:00

podcast

Our belief is that cost curves favor EVs. In fact, when we bought Tesla, the Model Y was a significant premium to Toyota Corolla. And today, it's trading almost on top of it in terms of price. And [Tesla is] more profitable on an operating basis. traffic.libsyn.com

AlvaChallengesThe assessment that Tesla has narrowed the Model Y's price premium while retaining stronger operating profitability offers a concrete competitive argument against caution on its earnings outlook.

Sarah Tavel

27 Oct, 19:01

Venture Partner at Benchmark, Formerly in Product at Pinterest

In my experience, FSD is way better in the last year and in the newer vehicles. I'd bet this is one of those cases where your intuition is going to be right before the data shows it. ... I love FSD, not just bc it takes the stress out of driving (unless I'm in a rush!) But bc it also feels safer. x.com

AlvaChallengesTavel's firsthand account of improved FSD performance in newer Teslas and a less stressful driving experience challenges the view that customer feedback will undermine FSD demand.

Dow Jones

26 Oct, 12:29

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Tesla reported 1.74 million FSD users at the end of the third quarter, up from 1.04 million a year ago. tradingview.com

AlvaMixedTesla's reported FSD user base grew substantially year over year, challenging weak-adoption concerns, while the user count leaves the paid retention underlying the valuation case unclear.

Reuters

26 Oct, 11:38

Global News Agency

While the software smoothly handled congested highway driving and traffic merges, Marcek had to manually slam on the brakes when the car failed to slow down for a closed barrier.At a Supercharger station, the car failed to steer into an open charging bay, leading Marcek to take over." tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsA Slovak driver's test showed smooth highway performance but required interventions at a barrier and charging bay, giving concrete customer-experience reasons to question sustained paid demand for Tesla's assisted driving.

Walter Bloomberg

26 Oct, 10:52

Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg

Barclays upgraded $TSLA to Overweight, raising its price target to $450 from $370. ... The bank sees a potential SpaceX merger as a major bullish catalyst, alongside accelerating Robotaxi adoption, stronger EV demand and AI-driven energy growth. x.com

AlvaChallengesBarclays' upgrade challenges the cautious valuation case by forecasting faster Robotaxi adoption, stronger EV demand and energy growth alongside a possible SpaceX merger.

Reuters

26 Oct, 10:41

Global News Agency

Latvia authorized Tesla's FSD automated-driving system, the U.S. electric car maker Tesla said on Monday in a post on X.Latvia is the tenth country in the European Union to do so. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesTesla says Latvia became the tenth EU country to authorize FSD, expanding where the product can be offered and tested against the thesis's cautious autonomy outlook.

Bloomberg

26 Oct, 09:45

Business and Financial Information and News Platform

Volkswagen and Xpeng secured approvals to trial autonomous driving systems on public roads in China, signaling a renewed push by authorities for larger-scale deployment following a safety review of the technology x.com

AlvaSupportsVolkswagen and Xpeng's public-road trial approvals in China show rivals advancing autonomous-driving deployment, supporting caution that Tesla's autonomy premium could face more competition.

Bloomberg Businessweek Daily

22 Oct, 22:04

Bloomberg Business and Finance Radio Show

It's not a guarantee that it happens, but we do think that there's a more than 90% chance that it happens, measured over a couple of years, the combined entity. podtrac.com

AlvaSupportsARK's Winton estimates a greater than 90% chance of a combination over a couple of years, supporting the merger's relevance to Tesla shares while placing it beyond the immediate earnings reaction.

Reuters

22 Oct, 20:59

Global News Agency

In a regulatory filing on Thursday, SpaceX said, "no determination by our special committee has been made regarding any potential combination, and any potential combination would be subject to further approval by our special committee, our board of directors and our controlling shareholder." tradingview.com

AlvaMixedSpaceX's filing confirms that no combination has been determined and that any deal still requires special-committee, board, and Musk approval, making the merger catalyst more formal but less immediate.

Reuters

22 Oct, 20:47

Global News Agency

Tesla shares fell 3.1% even though the electric car maker unexpectedly posted positive free cash flow in the quarter and cut its 2026 capital spending plans. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsTesla fell 3.1% despite positive free cash flow and lower 2026 capex, confirming that the reported operating beats did not produce the expected share-price upside.

Bloomberg Intelligence

22 Oct, 16:42

Bloomberg Financial Research Service

Investors seem to react the way that shares traded after market last night more about the fact that they spend less on R & D. They're worried that maybe the whole AI autonomous driving push isn't being developed as fast as Elon Musk has said. podtrac.com

AlvaChallengesWelch says investors may read lower R&D spending as a sign Tesla's AI and autonomous-driving work is advancing more slowly than Musk has suggested, helping explain the after-hours decline.

Dow Jones

22 Oct, 17:59

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Tesla did say its operating expenditure base will keep rising until new products commercialize, the analysts say. They lower their 2026 through 2028 adjusted earnings estimates, citing the higher operating expenditures. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesStoneX cut its 2026-2028 earnings estimates because Tesla expects operating expenses to keep rising, weakening the case that the cash-flow and margin beats signal durable earnings strength.

Dow Jones

22 Oct, 17:42

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Plus, Chief Executive Elon Musk didn't share many more details on a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX. This leaves questions about valuation and could weigh on the stock, the analysts say. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesOppenheimer says Musk's lack of merger detail left valuation questions that could weigh on Tesla shares, reinforcing the importance of a substantive reiteration to the expected catalyst.

Dow Jones

22 Oct, 17:51

Real-Time Financial News Wire

The company ramped OpEx, despite lowering capital expenditure guidance for the year. ... "We continue to believe these investments will pave the way for TSLA's AI transition, but they will weigh on margins and cash flow for a while," the analysts say. tradingview.com

AlvaMixedTruist analysts see the higher operating spend as funding Tesla's AI transition, supporting the strategic rationale, while expecting it to weigh on margins and cash flow in the near term.

Dow Jones

22 Oct, 13:43

Real-Time Financial News Wire

On the earnings front, investors seemed disappointed by Tesla's update last night. The EV maker said limited battery availability was hampering auto production, and cut its capex guidance for the year; its shares fell. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesTesla says limited battery availability is hampering auto production, confirming a constraint previously cited by an analyst and tempering the strength implied by the auto-margin beat.

Dow Jones

22 Oct, 12:07

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Tesla stock was down 3.6% in premarket trading on Thursday after the company reported fine third-quarter results. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter didn't think earnings drove the decline, instead he cited elevated expectations following SpaceX's quarterly report. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsPiper Sandler's Potter attributes Tesla's post-earnings decline to expectations lifted by SpaceX's results rather than Tesla's earnings, supporting the possibility that the prior run-up explains the reversal.

Dow Jones

22 Oct, 11:11

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Overall Tesla's earnings failed to impress Wall Street with operating profit coming in weaker than expected as spending on new technologies ramped higher. ... Musk, on the Tesla earnings call, wouldn't discuss a possible merger between SpaceX and Tesla. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesMusk did not discuss the merger on Tesla's earnings call, removing the reiteration the thesis expected could lift shares; weaker-than-expected operating profit also weighed on the results.

Reuters

22 Oct, 10:50

Global News Agency

The company on Wednesday lowered its 2026 capital spending forecast to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion after spending far less than expected on AI and robotics in the third quarter, which led to a surprise positive free cash flow. ... "The delay helps near-term cash burn but also suggests delays in investments that matter for fruition of long-term opportunities." tradingview.com

AlvaMixedJ.P. Morgan says Tesla's capex delay helped produce the near-term cash-flow beat but may postpone the AI and robotics investments behind its longer-term growth.

Reuters

22 Oct, 10:38

Global News Agency

For Tesla, all the talk is now about a potential merger with SpaceX, but its shares slipped another 5% overnight after its latest update. While it reported a positive free cash flow once again, its capex and car sales targets to 2030 came in well below forecast. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesReuters reports Tesla's capex and 2030 car-sales targets came in below forecasts despite positive free cash flow, adding a concrete reason for shares to fall after the earnings update.

Dow Jones

22 Oct, 10:32

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Tesla's earnings underwhelmed markets, with the group's core electric-vehicle business looking weak, AJ Bell's Russ Mould writes. Lower average sale prices in the face of fierce competition from China weighed on the vehicle business, Mould says. A lack of battery supplies meant the company also struggled to keep up with orders, the strategist says. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesAJ Bell's Russ Mould sees weaker vehicle pricing and battery-constrained deliveries behind the disappointing earnings reaction, challenging the strength implied by Tesla's auto-margin beat.

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