DANNY
Crypto Commentary
SpaceX's 25% two-day rally to $133 is a short-covering trap, not the end of the danger. With 34% of the float shorted before 911.5 million shares unlocked, covering drove the price up and retail followed, but supply has not changed: the shares remain unlocked, insiders can still sell and more unlocks are coming. The expected path is a retest of resistance, a flush below $100 and final capitulation into $77-85, the area to start buying. x.com
SpaceX is still in its post-IPO distribution phase, so the bounce is not the time to buy. Short interest has collapsed, forced selling is still coming through future unlocks, and IPO froth needs flushing out; Facebook fell 54% after its IPO on lockup fears. The expected path runs from the $224 IPO price to about $102 at 125 days and a final bottom near $50, with recovery starting around 250 days and $318+ by 300 days. The real bottom should form once distribution is exhausted. x.com
zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
Anthropic is SpaceX’s largest single customer, a person familiar with the matter said, accounting for more than a third of the revenue for Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence, satellite and rocket venture during the third quarter of this year. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported dependence on one customer for more than a third of quarterly revenue makes the earnings underpinning the rally vulnerable to changes in that customer's spending.
Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club
I'm talking SpaceX because I wanted to buy it for the Chapel Trust... I think you're dead right. I am unfortunately frozen. We got a big annual meeting coming up. I'm hoping between now and then, I get a chance to buy SpaceX... I think you want to get in ahead of the bounce. podcasts.apple.com
AlvaChallengesCramer favors buying SpaceX ahead of a bounce, opposing the thesis's plan to wait for a flush below $100 and an entry near $77–$85.
Dan Primack
Axios business editor covering VC, private equity and M&A
the valuation that SpaceX got, the money SpaceX got, was really based on the AI compute piece of things. And the market was very happy to give that to them even though they didn't really have a demonstrated business on AI compute. pdst.fm
AlvaSupportsPrimack argues SpaceX's valuation was built on an AI-compute business that had not yet been demonstrated, supporting the risk that expectations outrun fundamentals.
Sarah Guo
Founder of Conviction, Startup Investor
the lockup is not a “dump on retail.” it’s a year+ staggered drip, not the usual 180-day cliff. which means even outcomes-hungry insiders/employees won’t dump everything at once, but some can begin selling day one (which should smooth supply/float) x.com
AlvaMixedGuo says the year-plus staggered lockup should smooth the supply overhang rather than cause a single selling cliff, while allowing insiders and employees to begin selling immediately.
Stephanie Guild
Chief Investment Officer at Robinhood
We've been seeing customers take advantage of the pullback in certain names in the AI space. They have been selling Tesla and buying SpaceX in place of that. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsRobinhood customers' rotation from Tesla into SpaceX supports the thesis's premise that retail buying is helping sustain the rally.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
SpaceX's third-quarter AI revenue hit $7.6 billion, up more than 800% year over year. ... What's more, SpaceX management guided first quarter 2027 sales to a range of $33 billion to $35 billion, more than double the third-quarter total. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesRapid AI revenue growth and management's first-quarter sales guidance add a concrete fundamental basis for demand that challenges the short-covering-only account of the rally.
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
Bloomberg Business and Finance Radio Show
It's not a guarantee that it happens, but we do think that there's a more than 90% chance that it happens, measured over a couple of years, the combined entity. podtrac.com
AlvaChallengesWinton assigns more than 90% odds to a SpaceX-Tesla merger over a couple of years, raising the prospect of a catalyst for demand that could offset the expected supply-driven decline.Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Finance, Economics and Investment Podcast
I think there's a billion and three shares coming unlocked in the next week or two, and it just keeps on coming. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsNoble expects another large share unlock within two weeks and continuing unlocks, strengthening the thesis's near-term supply-overhang case.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
BOFA RAISES SPACEX ($SPCX) PRICE TARGET TO $275 FROM $235 BofA Securities analyst Ronald Epstein reiterated Buy after SpaceX beat Q3 expectations and strengthened its 2027 outlook. x.com
AlvaChallengesBofA's higher $275 target and reiterated Buy, grounded in Q3 results and a stronger 2027 outlook, challenge the expected capitulation into $77–$85.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
But its ability to build AI data centers quickly is driving the latest rally. ... It ended the quarter with about 1.7 gigawatts of AI computing capacity. It plans to end the year with up to 3 gigawatts, and Musk plans to deploy another 10 to 20 gigawatts in 2027. ... Even if SpaceX doesn't realize all its building ambitions, the pace is astonishing, and helps explain why sales growth is accelerating — and surprising Wall Street. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesBarron's attributes the rally to rapid AI capacity expansion and accelerating sales, offering a fundamental counterpoint to the thesis that the move is primarily short covering.
Reuters
Global News Agency
SpaceX is climbing around 12% after Elon Musk said Tuesday that a merger between the company and Tesla would be "a good idea." ... The rocket and space technology firm also reported its first profit as a public company. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe first reported public-company profit gives the rally a fundamental catalyst that weakens the case for a purely short-covering bounce, although Musk's merger comment is also contributing to the rise.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The move came after SpaceX reported better-than-expected third-quarter numbers on Tuesday evening. Sales of $14.6 billion easily topped Wall Street estimates of $12.9 billion. SpaceX even reported its first quarterly profit as a publicly traded company. It earned net income of $4.4 billion, about $3 billion more than Wall Street expected... Shares of Elon Musk's rocket and AI company rose almost 9% to $160.78 in premarket trading tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe earnings beat and premarket move to $160.78 challenge the expected near-term flush below $100 by giving the rally a catalyst beyond short covering.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The rocket maker and internet-service provider was the second-most popular stock among retail investors today, according to the flow-tracking firm Vanda, with traders pouring more than $23 million into shares ahead of the company's quarterly earnings report today. Since SpaceX went public in June, retail investors have been net buyers of the stock every week but one. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsRetail investors' near-weekly net buying supports the thesis's premise that retail demand remains strong enough to participate in a rally.
Mandeep Singh
Global Head of Technology Research at Bloomberg Intelligence, Host of Tech Disruptors
I mean, SpaceX is incredibly levered as well. So if ... the market is not liking the high leverage for these neoclouds, I don't think SpaceX gets a pass either. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsSingh sees SpaceX as vulnerable to the same valuation pressure as other highly leveraged neoclouds, reinforcing the thesis's near-term valuation and downside risks.Mandeep Singh
Global Head of Technology Research at Bloomberg Intelligence, Host of Tech Disruptors
I mean, I consider SpaceX to be a hyperscaler along with Meta. ... They need more customers. They need that cloud segment to ramp up. And the expectations are quite high because the company guided to $ 100 billion in ARR by the end of the year. And they're nowhere close. ... They are closer to a $ 25 billion, $ 30 billion revenue run rate. ... I mean, Anthropic and Google, but they need more than two customers. podtrac.com
AlvaChallengesThe gap between SpaceX's stated ARR target and its current revenue run rate, together with its narrow customer base, adds valuation and execution risk to the thesis's longer-term data-infrastructure opportunity.Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Tesla’s latest SEC filing fuels merger speculation, revealing SpaceX board ties and change-of-control provisions. ... Kalshi now prices a 67% chance of a merger before February 2027, up from roughly 30% earlier this month. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported rise in Kalshi’s implied probability to 67% and the SEC-filing-based speculation strengthen the prospective early-2027 merger catalyst, but this remains a market expectation rather than a confirmed deal.
Jason Calacanis
LAUNCH founder and early-stage startup investor
Great buy if you're holding for ten years, yes ... Do believe some shareholders might sell early so you can get in when they dip to $120 x.com
AlvaMixedThe ten-year buy view favors the longer-term upside case, while the expectation of early shareholder selling supports near-term supply pressure; the suggested $120 entry is above the thesis's $77–$85 target.
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
@Teslaconomics Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value. ... The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space. ... And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow. x.com
AlvaSupportsMusk’s view that Tesla’s value will center on Optimus and Cybercab, and that robots and intelligence can lead to mass-to-space activity, lends strategic support to the longer-term combination thesis.
Dave Limp
CEO of Blue Origin, Former Senior Vice President of Amazon Devices & Services
Team Blue is building the infrastructure and hardware to meet the mission ahead of us. Take a look at our upper stage manufacturing facility at Rocket Park - it will produce up to 150 upper stages a year to support high launch cadence. x.com
AlvaSupportsBlue Origin's planned capacity of up to 150 upper stages a year strengthens the thesis's concern that competition could add pressure on SpaceX shares.