Amazon remains a very cheap stock at 10.7x 2026 EV/EBITDA, given 12% long-term revenue growth and 15% long-term EPS growth. x.com
Gary Black
Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager of The Future Fund
Amazon looks cheap against its expected long-term earnings growth if that growth proves accurate. Its five-year consensus growth is the fastest in the Magnificent 7 after Nvidia, while its 0.90 forward P/E-to-growth ratio is the lowest excluding Nvidia. x.com x.com
Amazon's AWS growth remains strong despite slight earnings misses. AWS revenue rose 39% year over year in Q3. Increased 2027 capex could still weigh on the shares in the short term, even if demand continues to rise. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Amazon warrants caution in the short term because its capex spending is getting wild and free cash flow is taking a hit, expected to turn negative this year. x.com
Amazon looks cheap against its growth and cash-generating businesses. At about 3.5 times trailing revenue and a roughly 20 trailing P/E, it has $776B in sales, AWS growing 37% year over year, plus advertising and marketplace cash engines. x.com
Fast peer-cloud growth makes a bullish Amazon earnings view hard to resist. Azure grew 48% and Google Cloud 103%; the forecast is for 42%+ AWS growth. AWS is expected to grow over 40% annually over the next two years, so selling Amazon here risks missing that growth. x.com x.com
Amazon is one of the market's great opportunity-cost traps. After its earnings and historic capex spending, the stock risks moving sideways for a long period, locking up capital that could earn much better returns elsewhere. x.com
Amazon is a cash cow trading at a lean multiple, while CEO Andy Jassy says AWS is booming. x.com
Amazon's AWS growth still drives its valuation, making the post-earnings decline look temporary despite misses elsewhere. AWS grew 39% to $46 billion, above the $45.4 billion expected; Jassy sees growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Earnings, advertising and Q4 sales guidance missed expectations, while trailing free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion. x.com x.com
Amazon's accelerating AWS growth at high margins shows the strength of its moat, but returns on heavy capex remain unproven. AWS grew 39% to $46B, its fastest growth in nearly five years, at a 38.7% operating margin; Amazon posted record operating income. Online stores grew 2%, while ads grew 11%, down from 26% last quarter. Trailing free cash flow fell to -$42.4B as net capex reached $210.7B. Returns on about $220B of planned 2026 capex remain the open question, with free cash flow the test. … Show more
Amazon's 28% AWS growth likely makes the investment work. At the purchase price, AWS alone was valued at about 40x earnings even assuming the rest of Amazon was worth nothing, which 10% long-term growth would have justified; 28% growth makes the case far stronger. x.com