Brazilian domestic-market companies such as Nu, XP, Itaú, Bradesco, PagSeguro, CSN and Inter stand to benefit from a falling exchange rate, so positioning belongs in the domestic market. The exporters Petrobras and Vale are the ones falling today, which fits that call. The view was laid out in an iProfesional article on which CEDEARs could take off depending on whether Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's elections. x.com 

Brazilian equities look uninvestable as the political shift toward socialism threatens to make an already poor inflation-adjusted long-term bet worse. The Brazil ETF's sharp decline after the political outcome illustrates the concern, though individual winners remain possible. x.com  x.com  x.com 

XP Inc. is an average company trading too richly. It sits at roughly the same valuation as US peers such as Morgan Stanley and Raymond James, which it doesn't deserve given Brazil's higher discount rates. A hard rally on the day makes sense, but the valuation does not. x.com 

Brazilian equities look set to climb after Bolsonaro's son defeated President Lula, sparking expectations of pro-capital, pro-business policy. The Brazil ETF jumped 13% in a day, confirming on the weekly chart a breakout from a large wedge dating to 2010, then a retest and second leg higher. Don't chase it; wait for a technical pullback to enter. x.com 

Brazilian equities offer commodity and critical-mineral exposure, faster renewable-powered data-center grid connections, and diversification from the US. EWZ's $702 million inflow on October 5 was the largest daily inflow in the chart's history. That supports the bull case as investors recognize Brazil's potential, though the rush also looks like reactive FOMO. x.com 

Brazil could be the Q4 macro story after Flávio Bolsonaro won the election's first round and, with most eliminated votes leaning right, became the runoff favorite against Lula. Brazil-linked stocks were priced for disaster on US yields, election risk and rate fears. Nu is the quality blue chip, while Inter & Co and PicPay have far more room to grow and are much cheaper; StoneCo, PagSeguro, dLocal and MercadoLibre are also candidates. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Lula's fourth mandate has dealt Brazilian equities a political shock, with a risk of deeper losses after the initial selloff. EWZ fell about 18% overnight and 27% by morning; the intraday recovery does not settle what comes next, given the much deeper falls after Argentina's 2019 primary-election shock. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nubank, Sea Limited and MercadoLibre are all great buys now, with Bolsonaro's first-round victory in Brazil good news for Brazil-exposed names. Per @StockMarketNerd, he performed much better than polls indicated and is generally seen as the more business-friendly candidate. Emerging-market names like these also serve as hedges against the US market. x.com 

The coming IPO wave led by SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will create wealth that must flow through exchanges, brokers, wealth and alternative managers and luxury brands, still valued below peaks. Rebalancing, margin loans and estate plans run on the same rails that handled the offerings. SpaceX alone brought about $500M in underwriting fees to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and Nasdaq's fast-entry rule forces index buying within 15 days. In the 1990s this plumbing scaled with the money. x.com  … Show more

Latin American names such as PagSeguro, StoneCo, MercadoLibre, dLocal, Grupo Aval and Ecopetrol could re-rate violently if the market keeps pricing them as fragile regional risk proxies while their businesses prove to be long-duration infrastructure assets. BofA is now waking up to the LatAm asset opportunity. x.com