FestivusCap
Public Equities Commentary
10x Genomics looks overvalued even under generous assumptions. A DCF modeling Atera as a $1 billion franchise in five years at 35% EBITDA margins yields just $33 a share today. @Compound_Cap argues $1 billion for Atera supports about a $100 stock, but that would mean valuing it on 10x peak revenue, which makes no sense. x.com x.comÂ
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more
10x Genomics is being re-rated as an AI biology and data-layer company, and that re-rating is real. The stock hit a new 52-week high and is still riding its 21-day moving average. x.comÂ