Brad Freeman
Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd
Palantir is a special company whose valuation, while not cheap, is far more reasonable than before and below some high-growth peers. This quarter is expected to bring $1.81B of revenue and $1.08B of operating income, 50% revenue and 100% operating income compounding over three years, and it usually beats by a sizable margin. At 95x earnings it is steep, but EPS is growing 96% this year with 43% compounding expected after, so it should not be cheap. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir looks far more reasonable than many expect on a PEG basis, based on the next two years of expected profit growth. Its sales multiple is elevated, but margins are so strong that the price paid for its profit growth does not look stretched against other enterprise software names, several of which remain very expensive. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's accelerating commercial growth, sticky contracts and high margins make it a standout aggressive growth name despite its premium valuation. Q1 2026 revenue rose 85% to $1.63B, US commercial revenue grew 133% and government 84%, and full-year guidance was raised to about 71% growth. CEO Alex Karp cites overwhelming demand it cannot fully meet, showing real platform adoption rather than hype. x.comÂ
Palantir's share price demands unusually fast cash and profit growth despite its strong business. At roughly $210, it implies 48.5% annual growth for five years; at 32% annual growth, the shares would be worth $96.64. It is a Watch, not a Buy at today's prices. Q2 sales rose 93% and cash flow after employee stock pay was $2.52 billion over 12 months, but government concentration, cancellable contracts and rising stock pay remain risks. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir has grown into its multiple and could look cheap within a year, as earnings rise faster than the Street moves estimates. At about $155, or 69x 2027 consensus EPS of $2.29, it looks expensive, but it trades at a lower next-year P/E than Datadog and Snowflake while growing about twice as fast, and its P/E per point of growth is under half MongoDB's. Revenue rose from $1.41B to $1.63B to $1.94B over three quarters, with Q3 guided near $2.16B, and EPS keeps rising about 8 cents a quarter. … Show more
Palantir is becoming the AI operating system for many companies, and its Q2 shows enterprise AI buying at scale. Revenue growth accelerated to 93% from 85%, US commercial grew 149% versus about 134% expected, and FY26 guidance rose to 82% growth from about 71%. US commercial TCV jumped to $2.132B from $1.2B and remaining deal value to $6.238B, pointing to continued acceleration. It has the lowest PEG among peers, and margins should rise as commercial overtakes capped-profit government work. … Show more
Palantir Technologies is exceptional as a business but overpriced at about 90 times forward earnings, so much of its future is already paid for. Revenue is growing 85% with a 60% operating margin, 150% net dollar retention and about $7.7 billion in revenue guided for the year, numbers that are genuinely rare at its size. Being right about the business and wrong about the price is still a loss. x.comÂ
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.comÂ
Palantir keeps printing growth that software companies at its scale are not supposed to achieve. Revenue grew 93% year over year last quarter, US commercial revenue grew 149%, and full-year guidance was raised to 82% growth. x.comÂ
Palantir remains a great company, but after a roughly 60% run in two months its valuation is much less compelling; price still matters. Its edge is connecting data across an organization and turning it into decisions and actions as companies and governments spend heavily on AI. Last quarter US commercial revenue grew 150%, US government revenue 90%, operating margin reached 62% and free-cash-flow margin 63%. A meaningful pullback would be worth watching closely. x.comÂ
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.comÂ
