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Brad Freeman

Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd

24 Jun, 01:04Latest

Nvidia is a no-brainer over Cerebras for AI infrastructure exposure: it is expected to grow faster at a far lower valuation. Nvidia is seen growing 81% this year versus Cerebras' 69%, at 12x forward sales and 12x 2028 EPS, versus 60x and 41x for Cerebras. Nvidia is the clear GPU performance leader, while Cerebras, despite a nice quarter and OpenAI deal, is an innovator in a crowded custom-chip space. Once shortages ease and pricing power wanes, Nvidia's P/E would rise; timing is unclear. x.com x.com

NVDA

CBRS

14 May, 20:12

Nvidia is the far better buy than Cerebras Systems, whose IPO looks wildly overpriced at over 200 times 2025 revenue. Cerebras grew revenue 76% in 2025 but trades at about 15 times expected 2026-27 backlog revenue and roughly 290 times trailing GAAP EPS. Nvidia grew 66% on a much larger base and trades at about 6 times 2026-27 revenue, 45 times trailing GAAP EPS and 25 times trailing revenue, with a PEG well below 1. Cerebras will likely spike briefly, then follow Figma's hot-IPO decline. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

NVDA

CBRS

Fireside Alpha

30 Oct, 19:35

Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest

AWS CEO Matt Garman on Amazon installing an accelerator chip every 14 seconds: ... “I think we shared recently, we’re installing an accelerator chip, whether a GPU or a Trainium chip, every 14 seconds. It is a massive and rapid scale up. And today, we’re still supply constrained, and we’re scaling really rapidly for customers.” x.com

AlvaSupportsInstalling a GPU or Trainium accelerator every 14 seconds while remaining supply constrained supports strong infrastructure demand and continued scarcity underpinning Nvidia sales.

Fireside Alpha

30 Oct, 18:12

Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest

Foxconn Chairman reveals he met Sam Altman today and the OpenAI collaboration is becoming more concrete as OpenAI better forecasts demand, and says AI demand far exceeds what can be supplied: ... So the supply chain situation we’re facing now is that demand far exceeds what can be supplied. x.com

AlvaSupportsDemand exceeding manufacturing supply strengthens the case for sustained AI infrastructure spending and continued scarcity supporting Nvidia's sales.

Sarah Hunt

30 Oct, 16:00

Investment strategist and portfolio manager at Alpine Saxon Woods

I think Alphabet presages an issue when your funding for AI is your base business and your base business all of a sudden is being somewhat compromised. ... And we're already crossing over into 2027 where those cash flows that were funding everything and you still had mild positive cash flows are flipping to negative. podtrac.com

AlvaChallengesPressure on core businesses and a projected turn to negative cash flow in 2027 could weaken the internal funding sustaining AI infrastructure investment and Nvidia demand.

First Squawk

30 Oct, 16:46

Financial Audio News Service

AMAZON SAID TO TAP $80 BLN SUPPLIER LOAN FACILITY IN BID TO HELP FUND AI x.com

AlvaMixedFirst Squawk's unconfirmed report of an $80 billion supplier loan facility points to substantial funding for Amazon's AI buildout, alongside greater reliance on financing to sustain that investment.

Dow Jones

30 Oct, 16:30

Real-Time Financial News Wire

"Intel describes 2027 as an investment year, but even with the high capital spending requirements, it is clear to us that it will lose share to fabless competitors that have no such requirement, with AMD, NVIDIA, Graviton and Axion all materially outgrowing Intel's 30% market growth rate in CPU next year," the analysts write. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsMorgan Stanley expects Nvidia's CPU business to materially outgrow Intel's projected 30% market growth in 2027, supporting an additional source of infrastructure growth beyond GPUs.

Hedgie

30 Oct, 13:02

Financial Markets Newsletter and Commentary

HSBC wants insurance on its AI data center loans. Bloomberg says the bank is in early talks with insurers who would cover part of its losses if borrowers default. Barclays wants to hand off more than half the risk on some of its own AI loans. Some insurers are already close to the most data center risk they’ll take x.com

AlvaChallengesReported efforts to transfer loan risk, alongside insurers nearing exposure limits, point to financing constraints that could slow the data-center investment supporting Nvidia demand.

Reuters

30 Oct, 12:00

Global News Agency

An interactive Breakingviews calculator suggests that trimming a single year from the estimated “useful life” of these AI assets would erase some $36 billion of combined net income next year from the Big Tech foursome, theoretically leading to nearly $800 billion of lost market capitalization at their current valuation multiples. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesA modeled one-year reduction in AI asset lives would cut major cloud buyers' combined annual earnings by $36 billion, highlighting how faster obsolescence could pressure the returns underpinning infrastructure spending.

Silicon Data

30 Oct, 11:45

Compute-Market Data & Analytics

Since May, the throughput a GPU must deliver to cover its rent from open-weight tokens has risen 25–83%, faster than steady software gains typically add, so margins for inference providers renting GPUs have likely compressed, while GPU owners have captured the gain through higher rents. x.com

AlvaMixedHigher rents indicate persistent GPU scarcity, while the rising throughput needed to break even suggests pressure on inference customers' economics; these on-demand indices do not represent average compute costs.

Sravan Kundojjala

30 Oct, 12:05

Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis

MediaTek 4Q26 ... $2.5B AI ASIC revenue in 4Q (vs prior $2B guidance); started shipping from Sep ... 2027 ASIC is now at the high end of the $16B target (20% of the AI ASIC TAM) x.com

AlvaMixedThe raised AI ASIC revenue outlook strengthens evidence of custom-chip adoption challenging Nvidia, while adding to the competitive crowding facing Cerebras.

The Transcript

30 Oct, 11:11

Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter

$AMZN CEO: "AWS grew 39.3% year-over-year, accelerating for the sixth straight quarter, our fastest growth in nearly 5 years. Backlog is $578 billion, growing triple digits year-over-year and well diversified." x.com

AlvaSupportsAWS's sixth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth, reaching 39.3%, strengthens the demand backdrop supporting continued infrastructure investment and Nvidia sales.

Dow Jones

30 Oct, 11:44

Real-Time Financial News Wire

investors worry about competition from open-source models and Chinese labs to OpenAI and Anthropic, Zverev says. "I'm not sure frontier labs have that sustained advantage, and therefore I'm not sure that the capex bubble feeding that monster is sustainable." tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesCompetition from open-source models and Chinese labs could erode OpenAI's and Anthropic's advantages, calling into question the durability of the infrastructure spending supporting Nvidia's growth.

The Transcript

30 Oct, 11:17

Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter

$GOOGL CFO: "Google Cloud's backlog was $561 billion in Q3, with the majority of the backlog related to typical GCP contracts. We expect to recognize just over 55% of the total backlog as revenues over the next 24 months... ... In Google Cloud, we expect TPU system sales to continue to scale in Q4, followed by a meaningful revenue ramp in 2027" x.com

AlvaMixedThe $561 billion cloud backlog supports sustained infrastructure demand, while an expected meaningful TPU sales ramp in 2027 strengthens the competitive challenge to Nvidia from custom accelerators.

Dow Jones

30 Oct, 07:45

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Amy Robinson ... calls Nvidia the market's most overvalued stock, saying its investments in customers remind her of the circular vendor financing of the dot-com era. Nvidia has helped fund or guarantee loans for many customers' purchases of Nvidia chips, which are central to AI compute. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesThe assessment that Nvidia is the market's most overvalued stock directly challenges the thesis's cheapness argument, linking valuation risk to customer financing that resembles dot-com vendor lending.

Dow Jones

30 Oct, 04:18

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Saxo Markets chief investment strategist Charu Chanana says ... For artificial-intelligence infrastructure companies, while they enjoy strong demand and margins now, high profitability encourages new capacity, which could eventually put pressure on pricing, she notes. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsThe thesis's expected erosion of pricing power is supported by the risk that strong current margins attract new capacity and eventually pressure infrastructure pricing.

SemiAnalysis

30 Oct, 03:03

Independent Semiconductor and AI Research Firm

[Replying to @SemiAnalysis_: "NVIDIA has revised Vera Rubin NVL72’s NVLink bandwidth from 3.6 TB/s to 3.0 TB/s per Rubin GPU package, a ~17% reduction."] To address these limitations, NVIDIA has reduced the signaling rate, lowering the Nyquist frequency and easing channel requirements. x.com

AlvaChallengesA reported 17% reduction in Rubin's NVLink bandwidth to address signal-integrity constraints weakens the expected performance of Nvidia's next-generation GPU systems.

sourcery

30 Oct, 01:37

Investing and Technology Newsletter and Podcast

“Then you go, ‘You know what? Do all these agents need to run? And do they need to run as frequently as you set them up to run?’” ... “And then the second thing is there are probably a whole bunch of queries that an employee needs to do leveraging AI that probably could be achieved with these free models.” ... — Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton x.com

AlvaChallengesTighter controls on agent usage and routing simpler queries to free models could temper cloud revenue growth, putting pressure on the demand assumptions behind continued Nvidia infrastructure spending.

Reuters

29 Oct, 22:42

Global News Agency

NVIDIA IS IN TALKS TO PROVIDE NSCALE WITH BILLIONS IN CREDIT GUARANTEES FOR DEBT TO DEVELOP A 460-MEGAWATT DATA CENTER - THE INFORMATION tradingview.com

AlvaMixedThis could support demand for Nvidia infrastructure through a large data-center build, but Nvidia's credit guarantees would also expose it to financing risk; the talks are not yet a completed commitment.

Chamath Palihapitiya

29 Oct, 21:41

Founder & CEO of Social Capital, Co-Founder & CEO of 8090

New factories are scheduled to arrive from 2027 to 2029. ... The next memory bust does not need SI to stop growing. The last two downturns began with customers working through inventory. Buyers who had stocked up paused orders, and suppliers were hit by falling prices as well as weaker shipments. x.com

AlvaSupportsCapacity additions in 2027–29 and a potential customer inventory correction provide a path to easing memory scarcity despite continued AI growth, supporting the thesis's expectation of eventual pricing normalization.

First Squawk

29 Oct, 21:18

Financial Audio News Service

AMAZON CEO SAYS THE AWS BACKLOG IS $578 BLN, GROWING TRIPLE DIGITS YOY, AND THAT THE COMPANY EXPECTS TO SPEND “MEANINGFULLY MORE” ON CAPEX IN 2027 x.com

AlvaSupportsA $578 billion AWS backlog growing at triple-digit rates and plans for meaningfully higher 2027 capex strengthen the cloud investment backdrop supporting Nvidia demand.

Fireside Alpha

29 Oct, 21:12

Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy on the chip business: ... “Finally, our chips business continues to grow triple-digit percentages year over year, and revenue commitments for Graviton and Trainium have each increased more than 20 times year over year." x.com

AlvaChallengesMore than twentyfold growth in Trainium revenue commitments strengthens the evidence that a major Nvidia customer's custom accelerator is attracting substantial demand.

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