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Gary Black

Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager of The Future Fund

25 Jun, 09:43Latest

Micron's memory boom looks set to last longer than anyone thought, because it has locked in 16 long-term supply deals guaranteeing about $100 billion in revenue. Micron said fixed-price or price-capped deals near current levels should be about 40% of revenue, with price floors enabling gross margins well above any past peak. Management believes this AI cycle can keep memory prices high through at least 2030. If so, at 9x 2027 adjusted EPS of $135, Micron still looks cheap at about $1,220. x.com

24 Jun, 21:05

Micron is a major AI beneficiary as data center spending outstrips memory supply, and it blew away fiscal Q3 estimates while guiding well above Wall Street. Q3 revenue was $41.5B versus $35.7B expected, adjusted EPS $25.11 versus $20.49, and gross margin 84.9%. Q4 guidance calls for $49-51B revenue, $30-32 EPS and 86% gross margin, all above estimates. Shortages across computers, phones and cars mean prices are expected to stay high for the foreseeable future despite capacity expansion. x.com

Dow Jones

30 Oct, 15:02

Real-Time Financial News Wire

The risk is that if at some point AI spending falters, then Micron and its memory chip peers will find that PC and smartphone customers have already pulled back on hardware spending and are unable to fill the gap. So far there's no real indication of a pullback in AI investment. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesPrice-driven retrenchment by PC and smartphone buyers could leave Micron with less demand to cushion any future AI slowdown, making sustained pricing through 2030 more dependent on continued AI investment.

Dow Jones

30 Oct, 13:48

Real-Time Financial News Wire

PC shipments fell about 20% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to International Data Corp. The reason: Computer-memory prices have skyrocketed because of unprecedented memory demand for AI computing. As a result, PC manufacturers are focusing on higher-priced computers, reducing sales volumes. tradingview.com

AlvaMixedA roughly 20% fall in third-quarter PC shipments shows substantial demand destruction as AI-driven memory prices push manufacturers toward more expensive machines, confirming pricing strength while exposing its cost to non-AI demand.

Hedgie

30 Oct, 13:02

Financial Markets Newsletter and Commentary

These projects lean on the same short list of tenants, so if one pulls back, a lot of loans sour at once. Between private credit and insurers, the easy places to park this risk are filling up. I think banks start charging more for these loans or make fewer of them, and data centers get a lot more expensive to finance. x.com

AlvaChallengesConcentrated tenant exposure and limited insurer capacity underpin a forecast of costlier or scarcer data-center loans, threatening the infrastructure spending needed to sustain memory demand through 2030.

Sravan Kundojjala

30 Oct, 12:37

Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis

Kioxia QSep26 ... CY27 capacity fully sold out; LTAs cover 50%+ of CY28 bit shipments x.com

AlvaSupportsLong-term agreements covering more than half of 2028 bit shipments extend NAND demand visibility beyond the already sold-out 2027 capacity, supporting a longer memory cycle.

Sravan Kundojjala

30 Oct, 12:27

Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis

Tokyo Electron QSep26 ... 2H SPE guided to $9.9B, +24% h/h; Memory grows to 49% of the mix (DRAM 35%, NAND 14%) from 43% in 1H x.com

AlvaMixedRising memory equipment spending signals confidence in the boom, while also increasing the potential for supply expansion that could erode pricing power over time.

The Transcript

30 Oct, 11:31

Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter

Kioxia H1 FY27 Results (YoY, JPY): ... "Sales prices significantly increased, driving the majority of this quarter’s revenue growth" ... — Gross Profit: +1,676.0% to 3.43T (80.8% margin) x.com

AlvaSupportsPrice-led revenue growth and an 80.8% gross margin provide further evidence that memory scarcity is translating into exceptional supplier profitability.

The Transcript

30 Oct, 11:34

Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter

Kioxia's entire CY2027 production capacity is already sold out x.com

AlvaSupportsFully sold-out 2027 production at another major NAND supplier reinforces the case that committed demand can sustain memory tightness during Micron's forecast earnings year.

Dow Jones

30 Oct, 11:25

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Davidson analysts write. ... Revenue in the group's client computing division, coming in 9% below Wall Street estimates, the analysts note. The decline was a result of Intel's customers reducing their PC inventories as they adjusted to lower consumer demand. "Much of the weakness can be attributed to industry factors such as memory prices," they say. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesPC revenue falling 9% short of expectations as customers reduce inventories shows how high memory prices and weaker consumer demand can depress orders, challenging the durability of memory demand outside AI.

The Transcript

30 Oct, 11:17

Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter

$GOOGL CFO: "Google Cloud's backlog was $561 billion in Q3, with the majority of the backlog related to typical GCP contracts. We expect to recognize just over 55% of the total backlog as revenues over the next 24 months... ... In Google Cloud, we expect TPU system sales to continue to scale in Q4, followed by a meaningful revenue ramp in 2027" x.com

AlvaSupportsA $561 billion cloud backlog with over 55% expected to convert to revenue within two years, alongside a 2027 TPU sales ramp, strengthens the demand visibility underpinning continued AI memory purchases.

Reuters

30 Oct, 10:21

Global News Agency

China's CXMT said on Friday it swung to a net profit in the third quarter as surging AI-driven demand drove prices higher for memory chips. ChangXin Memory Technologies reported net profit attributable to shareholders of 54.4 billion yuan ($8.17 billion) for the three months ended September 30. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsAI-driven price increases producing $8.17 billion in quarterly profit at CXMT reinforce the evidence that memory scarcity is sustaining exceptional industry profitability.

Dow Jones

30 Oct, 10:37

Real-Time Financial News Wire

ChangXin Memory Technologies, as it is officially known, has been using the AI windfall to expand capacity and advance its technology ... The company said revenue surged to 269.02 billion yuan, equivalent to $40.39 billion, for the January-September period, from 32.08 billion yuan a year earlier tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesRapid revenue growth is funding capacity expansion and technology advances at a Chinese competitor, increasing the risk that additional supply erodes Micron's pricing power over time.

Jukan

30 Oct, 07:52

Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini

TrendForce: ... 4Q26 PC DRAM contract price increases confirmed at +13–18% QoQ, moderating from +18–23% in 3Q26. ... OEM DRAM inventories rose from 6–9 weeks at the end of 3Q26 to 7–10 weeks in early 4Q26, with further accumulation expected during the quarter. ... With the U.S. supplier locking in volumes under SCAs, Korean suppliers are set to deepen their PC DRAM supply cuts to more than 40% YoY, accelerating the shift toward server DRAM. x.com

AlvaMixedContinued contract-price increases and planned PC DRAM supply cuts support pricing strength, while rising OEM inventories and slower price growth signal demand pressure that could challenge the boom's durability.

Zephyr

30 Oct, 01:23

AI & Semiconductor Analyst at Citrini Research

Zinsner is too optimistic. PC unit sales will take a 20% hit next year x.com

AlvaChallengesA forecast 20% decline in 2027 PC unit sales implies greater demand destruction than Intel's 10% estimate, increasing reliance on AI purchases to sustain memory pricing.

First Squawk

30 Oct, 00:28

Financial Audio News Service

SK HYNIX TO CONSTRUCT U.S. NAND MEMORY FACILITY TARGETING AI DATA CENTER NEEDS x.com

AlvaChallengesA planned U.S. NAND facility adds a potential source of competing supply for AI data centers, increasing the risk that capacity expansion eventually eases memory tightness.

Jukan

29 Oct, 22:42

Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini

I think Intel badly underestimated how quickly higher memory prices would hit PC demand and trigger an inventory correction. ... Still, Lip-Bu did make some encouraging comments. ... “We now expect industry server CPU units to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027.” x.com

AlvaMixedMemory-driven PC weakness threatens consumer demand, while Intel's forecast of more than 30% server CPU unit growth in both 2026 and 2027 supports expanding server memory consumption.

Dow Jones

29 Oct, 22:34

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Amazon.com Chief Executive Andy Jassy says he thinks AWS could be generating $1 trillion a year in revenue within the next five to 10 years. Amazon has good visibility into the next two to three years about how much AI computing capacity customers will want, Jassy says. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsVisibility into two to three years of AI capacity demand and a forecast of $1 trillion in annual AWS revenue within five to ten years support a sustained cloud buildout underpinning memory demand.

Reuters

29 Oct, 21:58

Global News Agency

INTEL CEO: BY OUR ESTIMATES, SERVER CPU TAM COULD INCREASE AS MUCH AS FIVE TIMES FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY, FROM $40 BILLION TO MORE THAN $200 BILLION OVER 5 YEARS tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsA forecast that the server CPU market could grow from $40 billion to over $200 billion in five years supports a prolonged server investment cycle and accompanying memory demand.

Sandisk Corporation

29 Oct, 20:30

Developer and manufacturer of NAND flash storage devices and solutions

Data center is expected to be again the engine of growth and represent over 55% of the market, with build demand growing about 40% year on year enabled by higher ai-driven capital spending. This is after more than doubling in 2026.

AlvaSupportsExpected data-center demand growth of about 40% in 2027 after more than doubling in 2026 supports sustained AI-driven memory consumption, with data centers projected to exceed 55% of the NAND market.

Chamath Palihapitiya

29 Oct, 21:41

Founder & CEO of Social Capital, Co-Founder & CEO of 8090

The makers are using their record cash to expand production capacity. New factories are scheduled to arrive from 2027 to 2029. ... The next memory bust does not need SI to stop growing. The last two downturns began with customers working through inventory. x.com

AlvaChallengesNew factories arriving in 2027–2029 and the risk of customers pausing orders to digest inventories challenge the assumption that continued AI growth alone can sustain memory prices through 2030.

Dow Jones

29 Oct, 21:35

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Intel Sees PC TAM Down 12% on Unit Basis in 2026, Down 10% in 2027, CFO Says tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesA projected further 10% decline in PC units in 2027 extends demand destruction into Micron's forecast earnings year, increasing reliance on AI demand to sustain elevated memory prices.

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