3X Long Labubu
Long-Term Investor, Hobby Trader
Micron and SanDisk could get automatic buying support if they bounce next week, because put-side implied volatility skew is at an all-time high. That setup would add vanna and charm buying flows into options expiration. Kioxia and SK Hynix already tested their 50-day moving averages in Asia and bounced strongly. x.com
Micron and SanDisk are still treated as cyclical names, but this memory cycle is different and much longer than the last. Generalist funds will take time to realize that, and the view that margins peak as DRAM prices top out and capex rises is wrong. @akramsrazor notes Micron trades around 3x forward EBITDA while optical names trade on 2028 multiples above 20x. x.com x.com
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Asian stocks declined Friday, tracking losses on Wall Street, as a revenue shortfall from Google parent Alphabet drove investors to trim their technology holdings. ... South Korea's Kospi slid 5.2%, with index heavyweight chip makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropping 5.5% and 9.0%, respectively. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesSelling triggered by Alphabet's revenue shortfall is spilling into memory stocks, weakening the SK Hynix rebound signal behind the MU and SNDK bounce thesis.
Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club
If the stock of Hynix is up overnight, there's a really good chance the whole American chip complex is up. And that's what happened today after the company's overnight report. ... SK Hynix's US listed shares rallied more than 13% today. I bet that signals that Micron will be more of the same, making it a buy despite its already terrific track record. dts.podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsThe Hynix rally leads Cramer to expect further strength in Micron and recommend buying it, reinforcing the thesis's Asian rebound read-through.
Reuters
Global News Agency
SK Hynix gained 8.20% after the chipmaker announced shareholder returns of about $75 billion and reported a more than seven-fold rise in quarterly profit as AI infrastructure continues to drive up memory chip prices. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsSK Hynix's earnings beat and announced shareholder returns give its renewed rally a company-specific catalyst, strengthening the Asian rebound signal behind the MU and SNDK bounce thesis.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Still, signs of stress in the AI trade continued overnight, with SK Hynix yanking the planned U.S. IPO of its memory-chip business. The Korean chipmaker has been among the AI boom's chief beneficiaries. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesSK Hynix's withdrawal of its planned U.S. memory-business IPO amid AI-trade stress weakens the Asian rebound signal behind the MU and SNDK bounce thesis.
Bloomberg
Business and Financial Information and News Platform
Erroneous data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange showed leveraged long positions in Kioxia Holdings had plunged, leading some investors to believe that selling pressure had eased. x.com
AlvaChallengesErroneous exchange data undermines the reported easing of leveraged selling pressure in Kioxia, weakening the read-through from its bounce to MU and SNDK.
Macro Voices
Finance and Macroeconomics Podcast
At the same time, beyond the hyperscalers that are doing very well, many AI stocks have broken badly. As an example, the semiconductor index using the SMH attempted an early breakout a few weeks ago, but over the last two weeks has been off of its peak down 16%. At the same time, the memory stock ETF is at its six month lows. dts.podtrac.com
AlvaChallengesMemory equities are under technical pressure, with the memory stock ETF at a six-month low; that weighs against the thesis's near-term bounce setup.
Hedgeye
Independent Investment Research and Financial Media Company
BREAKING: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falls -5.8% to new Cycle Lows. x.com
AlvaChallengesA 5.8% drop to new cycle lows in the semiconductor index raises the risk that sector selling overwhelms a MU and SNDK bounce into expiration.
Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
[Quoting @PolarisLog: "삼성전자가 HBM4 가격을 업계 최고 수준으로 책정하면서 내년 HBM 평균판매가격은 올해보다 100에서 150퍼센트 오를 전망임"] 삼성전자가 HBM4 가격을 업계 최고 수준으로 책정, 내년 HBM 평균판매가격은 올해보다 100에서 150퍼센트 오를 전망 ... 올라간 HBM 가격이 전체 메모리 시장을 끌어올리면서 내년 1분기 디램 가격도 전분기보다 두 자릿수 비율로 상승할 예정 x.com
AlvaSupportsThe quoted report forecasts sharply higher HBM prices and a double-digit quarterly DRAM price rise in Q1, supporting the thesis that memory pricing strength could persist into next year.
Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
A few friends have asked me whether the strike at Micron is bullish for the memory sector. My answer is that it should be good news for Samsung and SK hynix, but it’s likely bad news for Micron. ... This time, though… memory ASPs aren’t particularly low, and for Micron, the opportunity cost of the strike looks likely to outweigh any potential upside. x.com
AlvaChallengesThe strike could hurt Micron despite any lift to memory prices, weakening the case for its earnings outlook while potentially benefiting competitors.Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club
If the yield on the 30-year Treasury goes north of 6%, it's currently at 5.47, then look out. ... If we get another rate hike soon, then I believe Corw will have a difficult time raising money, and the dominoes will indeed fall. youtube.com
AlvaChallengesHigher Treasury yields could raise data-center financing costs and threaten the buildout that supports a longer storage cycle; Cramer expects another rate hike to make CoreWeave's fundraising difficult and trigger wider failures.Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club
Didn't help that, the weekend before last, Haktan, the CEO of Broadcom, that's a charitable trust name, explained that capital might be the biggest constraint to the AI build out rather than chip shortages. ... When we started hearing lots of chatter about how expensive it'll it'll be just to raise money to build data centers, then the demand for these components that go into the data centers gets called into question. dts.podtrac.com
AlvaChallengesRising data-center financing costs could weaken demand for memory and storage, putting the thesis's longer-cycle expectation at risk.Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club
So what needs to really change before we start bottom fishing with some degree of safety? ... First and foremost, it sounds simplistic, but you know what? The charts need to get better. ... I'm talking about the Van X Semiconductor ETF where that newer Round Hill Memory ETF, the aptly ticker DRAM, they sure look like they've made top... Double tops ... It's almost always leads to lower prices. So they need to break that double top pattern, which means we need a nice rally more than we got today dts.podtrac.com
AlvaChallengesThe apparent double tops in semiconductor and memory ETFs weaken the near-term case for buying MU and SNDK on a bounce: Cramer sees a stronger rally as necessary before bottom-fishing becomes safer.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
According to Korean media reports, major PC vendors, including Lenovo, HP, and Dell Technologies, have signed long-term agreements with memory manufacturers, which are expected to ease their memory chip shortages next year. ... A decline in consumer PC demand, driven by price increases as vendors pass on higher costs, is also seen as a key factor helping to ease memory shortages. x.com
AlvaChallengesReported supply agreements and softer PC demand point to fewer DRAM and SSD procurement shortages for PC vendors next year, tempering the case for sustained tightness in that part of the storage cycle.Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
2. 어쨌든 NVHBM은 HBM커머디티화 및 가격 협상권을 가져오려는 엔비디아의 시도이다 ... 4. 투자 관점에서 보면, 지금 메모리 업체들이 아무리 돈을 잘 벌어도 주가에는 그만큼 반영되지 않는 데 이러한 사실이 투자자들에게 더 낮은 밸류에이션 배수를 적용할 또 하나의 근거가 될까 봐 걱정됩니다. x.com
AlvaChallengesNVHBM이 엔비디아의 가격 협상력을 높인다는 우려는 메모리 업체의 실적이 좋아도 낮은 밸류에이션 배수가 유지될 수 있음을 시사해, MU·SNDK의 낮은 배수를 투자 근거로 삼는 판단을 약화합니다.
Dan Ives
Technology Analyst & Partner at Yorkville Ives
We were in Korea last week trying to get a better sense in terms of memory and what demand looks like there. ... demand supply 13 to 1 for memory chips. ... And I still believe we're in year three of a 10 ... to 12 year build out. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsIves's Korea checks and long build-out forecast support the view that strong memory demand could sustain this cycle longer than a typical one.Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
I share your bullish view on memory. Overall demand will naturally continue to grow, pushing prices higher. But my point is about pricing power. Think about why Samsung has gained more pricing power in HBM4. x.com
AlvaSupportsGrowing memory demand supports a longer cycle, while the distinction between rising prices and supplier pricing power makes pricing power a separate factor to assess for MU's margins.Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
Standardizing base die and interface implementations around NVIDIA’s own requirements can reduce the qualification burden across suppliers. Once alternative suppliers have passed qualification and secured sufficient capacity, NVIDIA can shift orders more easily. Memory companies will have to compete on price to win those orders. x.com
AlvaChallengesStandardized base dies and interfaces could make it easier for NVIDIA to shift HBM orders among qualified suppliers with enough capacity, increasing price competition and weakening the case for a materially longer, stronger storage cycle.Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
What worries me even more is the possibility that other hyperscalers adopt this same NVHBM architecture for their own AI chips. AWS’s Annapurna Labs has already officially announced that it is working with NVIDIA and memory suppliers on NVHBM. x.com
AlvaChallengesIf other hyperscalers adopt NVHBM, memory suppliers could face more pressure to pass cost gains through as lower HBM prices, challenging the thesis of a materially longer favorable storage cycle.Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
NVIDIA is now putting its name on HBM and trying to dictate even the design and manufacturing choices inside it to suit its own platform. ... Once that structure is established, no matter how much memory companies improve yields and lower costs, they will face growing pressure to pass those gains on through lower selling prices. Even when shortages push prices up, the size of those increases could be constrained. x.com
AlvaChallengesThe predicted NVHBM structure could limit memory suppliers' pricing power even during shortages, weakening the case that MU's stronger margins will persist through a longer cycle.Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
I am certain that with this mindset, they will never turn technological progress into commercial power, whether through 3d stacked DRAM or custom memory. If they stop at making whatever the customer wants, how much of the value they create they actually get to keep will ultimately be determined by the balance of power with that customer. x.com
AlvaChallengesA customer-led mindset could prevent memory makers from converting advances such as stacked DRAM into durable pricing power, weakening the case for a materially longer cycle.
