Oracle looks mispriced because $11 of current consolidated earnings power puts it at 11x earnings without a breakup. It trades below its software business's value despite the highest gross retention in software; separating pre-AI OCI, AI operations and AI development makes it an obvious long. Future funding will cost more, but current leverage is no issue and all contracts are well below spot, leaving nowhere near neocloud risk. Fundamentals may not matter during panics. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's projected free-cash-flow turnaround challenges the market's fear that data-center spending will bring insolvency or years of cash burn for little return. Oracle expects positive FCF in the second half of FY28, at least $30B in FY29 and self-funded growth by FY29 as capex declines. Already undervalued, Oracle is seeing a lift; the clearer profitability path could lift other data-center operators too. x.com 

Oracle's reliance on OpenAI makes its backlog vulnerable. About $250B of backlog comes from OpenAI, which is not making money; that risk is no longer in Oracle's hands, and the stock is very likely to fall further. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's plan to fund its AI buildout from cash flow makes last week's financing fears look completely overdone. It expects capex to peak in FY27-28, free cash flow to turn positive in H2 FY28 and top $30B in FY29, funding growth from then. Oracle plans at most $20B in further capital raises through FY30, excluding refinancing, after an already completed $20B equity raise. Vendor financing, customer prepayments and customer-supplied hardware should reduce upfront cash needs. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's AI buildout looks fundable as spending peaks and cash flow turns positive. Spending is forecast to peak in FY27-28, with free cash flow positive in 2H FY28 and above $30bn in FY29, a roughly $54bn swing. New capital raising is capped at $20bn through 2030, half equity and half debt. Revenue is projected to grow from $90bn next year to $225bn+ by FY30. Bullish Oracle. x.com 

Oracle's OpenAI exposure makes buying its shares here a bet too big to take. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's non-AI revenue and scale could help it outlast debt-starved neoclouds. Elon Musk says debt markets have largely shut out firms lacking substantial non-AI revenue. Oracle raised $20B through an ATM without significant dilution; unlike other major hyperscalers, it is not building Nvidia alternatives, giving Nvidia reason to prioritize it. If Musk is right, consolidation could lift Oracle's pricing power; at 19x earnings, it is without a doubt one of AI infrastructure's best buys. x.com 

Oracle looks buyable for now because the large financing and equity raises feared for next year no longer look imminent. New Mexico commissioners say there were no talks to alter Project Jupiter's power agreement and doubt a majority will approve a change; Stargate may be over a year behind. PIMCO has left AI data-center bonds, which still threatens funding. This is probably a bottom until the AI bubble pops; wait until $200 to short. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's big rally on its RPO jump was fake, and the only data since show OpenAI writing checks its business can't cash. The pop came on an earnings miss and took 57 days to undo; the stock then fell another 46% and has dropped after every report since. Within two weeks, a force majeure dismissed as a nothing burger gave way to word that its cash-incinerating key customer has $20B less revenue than due diligence assumed. Shorting in size is still hard. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's forecast of a FY29 capex step-down and a limit on additional capital raises supports a return to all-time highs soon. Oracle says it will limit those raises to $20 billion through FY30 and reaffirmed its FY27 outlook of over $90 billion in revenue and $8.10 non-GAAP EPS. The stock remains very overcrowded. x.com  x.com