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Brad Freeman

Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd

17 Sep, 15:49Latest

IREN and Nebius will need to keep aggressively raising debt and equity to grow toward CoreWeave's installed capacity, and that will eat into profit per share through interest expense or a growing share count. Their balance sheets look prettier than CoreWeave's only because their footprints are much smaller; less debt would just mean heavier dilution. @ZeekTyt counters that customer prepayments and GPU loans cover much of IREN's chip cost, keeping its debt far smaller relative to assets. x.com x.com x.com

NBIS

IREN

9 Sep, 16:45

Neocloud demand for 2028 bodes well for the longevity of the AI infrastructure cycle and for Nebius and IREN to keep ramping. There is growing talk that 2028 demand is starting to represent a significant portion of capacity at these companies, and Nebius's CEO spoke about it the day before. x.com

NBIS

IREN

Daniel Romero

Technology Equity Analyst, Semiconductors/Data Centers/Physical AI

27 Oct

NBIS

IREN

Lower leverage puts IREN and especially Nebius in a better position than highly indebted neocloud peers to withstand higher interest rates. Debt plus leases equal 1.9 times IREN's equity and 1.0 times Nebius's, versus 10.3 times for CoreWeave; the comparison also includes colocation providers. x.com x.com

Ren

Head of AI, Ex-Product Manager, AI Supply-Chain Bottlenecks

27 Oct

NBIS

Nebius looks cheaper against a year of stronger execution, leaving room for its shares to rise. EV/current ARR fell from 57x to 14x as quarterly revenue rose from $105M to $582M and adjusted EBITDA moved from -$21M to +$236M. The 5GW figure is a year-end contracted-power target, not live capacity. Per Polymarket, Dutch government AI plans could favor Amsterdam-based Nebius. Delivery still needs capital and power; Nebius borrows at about half CoreWeave's cost and gets customer prepayments. x.com … Show more

LongGameEquity

Long-Term Investor, AI & Software

24 Oct

CoreWeave, Nebius, Oracle and IREN cannot count on Nvidia to absorb their debt risk because its AI funding creates no obligation to rescue them. If the AI trade unwinds and they become desperate for cash, their assets could become acquisition targets at a fraction of peak valuations; Nvidia might acquire them cheaply instead of bailing them out. x.com x.com

Biotech2k

Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery

15 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

IREN

CoreWeave and Nebius's short estimated cash runways magnify their debt and refinancing risk, while IREN looks better insulated. The attached comparison puts CoreWeave at about three months without continuous credit or dilution, Nebius at seven to nine months with contract prepayments, and IREN at about 24 months with recent GPU financing. IREN's burn figure uses a Q4 FY26 net-loss proxy, rather than the Q2 2026 free-cash-flow measure used for the others. x.com x.com

Stocker-Man

Long-Term Growth Investor & Swing Trader, Public Investing Journal

14 Oct

NBIS

Nebius's partly customer-funded buildout makes its financing structure preferable to CoreWeave's as borrowing risks rise. CoreWeave's unsecured bond yields have approached 15%, while hotter CPI raises the possibility of more Fed hikes. Nebius had about $8B cash at Q2, expects over $9B in 2026 customer prepayments and secured a $775M facility at SOFR + 2.50%. Its $20-25B capex plan, negative free cash flow, dilution and premium valuation still demand attractive returns after costs. x.com x.com

Pegasus

Long/Short Equity Investor

25 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

IREN

Hardware suppliers and VC keep financing cash-hungry labs and neoclouds, making compute rental prices at CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN look artificially supported. Lab revenue growth is finally plateauing at 800% year over year after roughly tenfold equity gains across the stack over the last decade. The buildout is also crowding out the economy's appetite for debt. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Stocker-Man

Long-Term Growth Investor & Swing Trader, Public Investing Journal

21h ago

NBIS

CRWV

Hyperscaler borrowing could raise Nebius and CoreWeave's financing costs as investors favor safer debt. Microsoft reportedly plans to borrow. Nebius has prepayments and cheaper funding; CoreWeave has more debt. Nebius is strongly preferred if credit tightens. If rates fall and CoreWeave turns its $104B backlog into revenue, EBITDA and cash flow, it could have significantly more upside. Google expects more third-party compute use in Q4; Microsoft cites delayed deliveries. x.com x.com x.com

Nate Endicott

Retail Investor, AI Infrastructure & Nebius

14 Oct

NBIS

IREN

Nebius and IREN do not have CoreWeave's debt problem because neither carries the heavy debt load of CoreWeave or Oracle. CoreWeave's troubles are causing problems for them anyway, though the concerns are a mix of real issues and noise. CoreWeave borrowed heavily before demand and unit economics improved; payback periods are now under two years, and take-or-pay contracts should cover interest despite very high payments. x.com x.com x.com

Convequity

AI Value-Chain & Enterprise Technology Research

27 Oct

CRWV

IREN

CoreWeave's risk is buildout speed: each new build needs capital before the last pays for itself. Its analysis shows $35.6B of loans lasting about nine months beyond customer contracts; $14.6B is due in 2031-32 as final contract cash arrives. IREN's Microsoft project loan matches its contract, but $6.3B of convertible bonds mature in 2031-33, mostly after contracted cash ends; low shares mean cash repayment. Slower AI demand growth could let both earn back projects before funding more. x.com

DVB

Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder

19 Oct

CRWV

CoreWeave's bond financing carries about $2.6B a year in net interest, yet it still dilutes shareholders. The comparison shows roughly $45.2B in net debt, nine times shareholder equity, versus about $2B and 0.2 times for Nebius. x.com

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