Robinhood's Q3 report still looks solid despite misses against tough year-ago peak crypto and equity comps. Revenue missed slightly; the EPS miss looks tied to $67M of unrealized mark-to-market losses primarily related to its RVI fund, explaining the drawdown. Its new banking feature looks frictionless: send cash by text without recipients needing Robinhood accounts, a nice Zelle alternative versus its partner bank. Robinhood is cyclical, unlike compounding SoFi, though both are great. x.com  … Show more

Robinhood is a future $200B+ company valued at $66B, and that gap will close. Interest is low after a 50% correction from all-time highs, retail capitulation in crypto, a 10x run off the lows and hotter themes in AI and memory. Yet Schwab is worth $156B and Interactive Brokers $138B, while Robinhood is evolving into a full financial operating system for younger investors. x.com 

Robinhood's earnings miss leaves its revenue vulnerable to a market correction. Revenue could shrink further if the market corrects; a better entry may emerge over the next six months, but that is not assured. x.com 

Robinhood's position as the first true institution to come on-chain may give it staying power beyond a hype cycle. Hype cycles come and go, but it is too early to count Robinhood out; its presence is unlikely to disappear over the long term. x.com 

Robinhood's growing non-crypto businesses make its trading-app valuation look too low. Gold subscribers rose 34% to 5.2 million, platform assets reached $396 billion, and 14 business lines now each generate over $100 million annually. Overweight with a $115 target, despite a weak report: deposits fell to $15.7 billion from $22 billion and net interest income dropped 9% as rates declined. x.com  x.com 

Robinhood posted an ugly double miss, and adding prediction markets and betting to the platform may eventually destroy its core user base. x.com 

Robinhood is oozing free cash flow despite the less favorable market. At 27x forward free cash flow, it is an undeniable bargain, and the stock is unlikely to get much cheaper. The near-term outlook is not particularly exciting, but risk appetite will return and investors will trade aggressively again; a crypto recovery would light a spark under the business. The $185 target by end-2027 remains. x.com 

Robinhood's prediction-market growth can support revenue regardless of crypto sentiment because event contracts, including sports betting, are less boom-and-bust than crypto. Its Q3 event-contract revenue reached $173 million, or 12.2% of total revenue, versus $120 million from crypto trading. x.com 

Robinhood exploits its customers for its own benefit through Gold membership, payment for order flow and encouragement of day trading. Its prediction and gambling markets reinforce that view. SoFi, by contrast, is the company that seems to work in customers' best interest. x.com  x.com 

Robinhood is expanding from a trading app into a financial super app, and that expansion story is just getting started. x.com