SolarEdge and Enphase are both best positioned for solid-state transformers, and both are mid-term accumulation candidates, with no preference yet between them. Per a post the author replies to, Enphase uses Infineon's GaN bidirectional switches for its SST. Their charts suggest the monster move can continue. x.com  x.com 

SolarEdge could re-rate from a broken solar story to an emerging AI data-center infrastructure play sooner than expected. It set a $600M solid-state transformer revenue target for 2029, far above a ~$250M base case for 2030, and its 800 VDC conversion stage is running under load in the lab, keeping a working system on track for end-2026. A joint white paper with NVIDIA adds credibility, though NVIDIA does not endorse it and there is no pilot customer or order yet. It is a 2027-2028 play. x.com  … Show more

Enphase's US home-solar demand still has not stabilized, delaying its potential home-power recovery to 2027. Q4 revenue guidance of $225-255M is about 20% below the Street at the midpoint, and guided gross margin falls to 40-43% from 45%. Higher electricity costs from AI demand could eventually favor homes generating and storing power; its IQ Battery 5G stores about 50% more energy and costs about 40% less to make. The next two quarters look tough. x.com  x.com 

SolarEdge's solid-state transformer technology is well documented and seemingly non-speculative, yet it trades at an anomalous 2x sales versus about 4x for transformer maker Hammond Power. Per @aakashgupta, transformer lead times of up to five years are gating US AI data centers: of 12 GW of 2026 capacity announced, only 5 GW is under construction. x.com 

SolarEdge's push into data centers is a massive opportunity, with potential Nebius-like returns if it executes, though that may take a long time. It has laid out a $600M SST revenue target by 2029. The market isn't buying the story yet given execution risk and how slowly its residential battery business has recovered. x.com  x.com 

Enphase is still a business in contraction: Q2's sequential improvement came almost entirely from safe-harbor shipments booked ahead of tax-credit deadlines, not returning end demand. Those deals pull volume forward, and a tariff refund after the Supreme Court voided IEEPA tariffs flattered GAAP results one time. US revenue, the large majority, is still shrinking. The IQ Solid-State Transformer is an interesting second act, but one clean demand-driven quarter is needed first. x.com 

Enphase and SolarEdge are a paired bet on AI data center power electronics. Both bring deep bidirectional conversion and safety expertise from residential and microgrid markets, which data centers need for sudden power swings as GPU clusters cycle and for fail-safe protection where one breaker failure can destroy a rack. Direct 13 kV-to-800 V solid-state transformers are about two years out, so both look only partly noticed after correcting to attractive multiples. SolarEdge is slightly ahead. … Show more

Enphase is one of the most asymmetric opportunities in the market because the US is banning Chinese solar inverters and Enphase is one of the largest US inverter makers. Its new data center product also has 20+ customers lined up. A 15% drop from the morning's highs after the ban news looks like free money. x.com  x.com 

Enphase is asking for a re-rate before transforming its business, which fundamentally does not work. It sells rooftop hardware to homeowners who just lost the tax credit, and Q1 revenue fell 20% year on year. Its GaN and custom-ASIC power platform for AI is credible engineering, but volume is not until 2028 and the solid-state transformer has zero named customers. Management saying investors value it wrong is the label trying to go first; utility-scale T1 Energy is preferred in solar. x.com 

The Iran war will restart the energy-independence narrative, so demand for SolarEdge and Enphase is bound to grow and start a new cycle. Conviction is high, betting big on the hope that the uptrend is only just starting. x.com  x.com