3X Long Labubu
Long-Term Investor, Hobby Trader
SpaceX's lockup expiration need not be bearish after a great earnings report, since the selloff has likely already priced in the post-lockup dump. The stock is down more than 50% from its highs and heavily shorted, per @ZaStocks. Locked-up investors, employees and insiders cannot short during the lockup, so the drop was probably anticipation of the release rather than hedging. x.com x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX's private-market holders will likely hedge by buying six-month puts whenever the price tops $175 before their shares unlock, and that hedging may be the only sell pressure. Market makers will keep selling stock to delta-hedge those puts, though the resulting put wall should also support the price through vanna and charm flows. x.com
SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com x.com
SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com
SpaceX's feared lockup selling never came, removing the main reason to wait until December to buy. The first lockup expiry passed without the immense selling many expected, and it rarely pays to bet against Elon Musk. x.com
SpaceX shares look tempting as the lockup partially ends, with Finviz showing almost a 30% short float. There is no sign of a rush to sell at these prices: many chased the stock at $200, and very few want it in the low $100s. x.com
SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX shorts are crowded into a stock that big institutions are set to buy. Real-time short interest is 289.1M shares, or 45% of the 638.9M share float, up from 35%. Fidelity, Baron, Vanguard, Invesco, BlackRock and Capital Group know the August 10 lockup expiry is coming and want to gross up their positions; Fidelity will not stay at 1.66%. The first several quarters of a newly listed company are also usually heavily sandbagged. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX shares may simply hover here, as lockup expirations look mostly priced in after relentless daily selling. Its post-IPO chart looks awfully similar to Tesla's. A sharp move back to all-time highs isn't expected, but a bounce is possible. x.com
SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.com
SpaceX looks due for a bounce because sentiment has become extremely negative and stretched rubber bands snap. The stock fell from $171 on June 30 to $108, its lowest close, on worries about the lockup, high beta and AI, and permabears declaring victory is a contrarian sentiment signal. Large holders likely hedged with shorts or puts on SpaceX or on AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs and Intuitive Machines, and that unwind could be violent. The negativity should abate. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
