Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
IDEAYA is the top oncology pick, with solid management and a pipeline that could reach $5-8 billion in peak sales. Its lead uveal melanoma drug could do $2-3 billion and is likely to get accelerated approval for its first indication later in 2026. A DLL3 drug for small-cell lung cancer has strong early data and could become a second blockbuster, an MTAP drug could add over $1 billion in a competitive space, and its ADC platform could yield several more drugs. x.comÂ
IDEAYA's value should be judged on discounted cash flows, not on the most optimistic peak-sales case. An estimate of about $250M in peak sales is accurate across models. A replier argues that if adjuvant use works, a 12-month treatment most patients would complete, peak sales could be 6 to 8 times higher, but investors do not pay that multiple today. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Iovance Biotherapeutics is the first mover in TIL therapy, as Amtagvi is the first and only FDA-approved tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte therapy for solid tumors and no rival is close to market. 2025 revenue jumped over 60% to $264M as it commercializes and scales. Its pipeline is expanding beyond melanoma into lung and cervical cancer and sarcomas, where early data showed a 50% response rate. H.C. Wainwright kept a Buy rating and $9 target, about 2.8x the ~$3.41 price. x.comÂ
Small- and mid-cap biotech looks like one of healthcare's more asymmetric setups after a four-year bear market, as AI speeds drug discovery and Big Pharma faces a patent cliff. Over $300B of pharma revenue goes off patent in the next few years, M&A is already ramping hard as pharma hunts for assets, and many small and mid-cap names still trade at reasonable valuations, making them potential takeover targets. x.comÂ
Moderna's oncology franchise has been repriced by the Merck-partnered INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine trial, a watershed moment. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $180 target, noting shares remain more than 70% below their old highs, and Moderna closed an upsized $2.6 billion convertible note to fund oncology growth. The stock is consolidating in a tight pennant after its biggest gap up in years; a move above $156.13 targets $161.37, then $176.66. x.comÂ
