Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
Protagonist is a really low-risk story because even a J&J buyout, its worst case, would yield a fast profit. It is not the most exciting story since big pharma gets 90% of revenues. The best case is ongoing royalties funding heavy buybacks that shrink the float over time. Keeping IL-17 and other early drugs for shareholders would be an extra stroke of luck. x.comÂ
Protagonist's partnerships leave shareholders too little of its drugs' potential sales, making Madrigal's retained sales preferable. Even if Protagonist's partnered drugs reach a lofty $15 billion in sales, a 10% share yields only $1.5 billion versus Madrigal's 100% of a projected $7 billion in peak sales. Madrigal now has more drugs in its pipeline, while Protagonist may partner away IL-17 too, limiting its chance to become a biotech with tens of billions in its own revenue. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers, Nautilus Biotechnology, Viking Therapeutics, Protagonist Therapeutics and Eli Lilly have 10x potential as peptide-related stocks; peptides will create generational wealth this year. Nautilus has a $230 million market cap, Viking $3.5 billion, Protagonist $9.1 billion and Lilly $1.1 trillion. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Small- and mid-cap biotech looks like one of healthcare's more asymmetric setups after a four-year bear market, as AI speeds drug discovery and Big Pharma faces a patent cliff. Over $300B of pharma revenue goes off patent in the next few years, M&A is already ramping hard as pharma hunts for assets, and many small and mid-cap names still trade at reasonable valuations, making them potential takeover targets. x.comÂ
Corcept Therapeutics, Travere Therapeutics, UroGen Pharma, Protagonist Therapeutics and Rhythm Pharmaceuticals rate highest among pharma stocks combining strong business growth with a rising share price. Corcept treats Cushing's syndrome and is testing drugs in cancer; Travere's sales jumped after a new rare-kidney-disease drug launch; UroGen treats bladder cancer; Protagonist develops blood and immune drugs with Takeda and Johnson & Johnson; Rhythm treats genetic rare obesity. x.comÂ
Johnson & Johnson looks expensive at 22x for its growth, even though its story is clean. Limited loss-of-exclusivity risk until the 2030s, a cleanup via spin-off and divestments, and a pipeline in IBS and cancer could deliver double-digit EPS growth before 2030, and Street estimates are probably too low. Still, Stryker at about 20x 2027 earnings, with high-single-digit organic growth and strong M&A skills, beats JNJ at 21x, which tends to overpay for growth like typical large pharma. x.comÂ
