TechStockFundamentals
Technology Investor with ~25 Years of Experience, Former Hedge Fund Manager for 10 Years
Salesforce's bear case looks fully priced at 10x free cash flow, while AI is gaining traction and margins have plenty of room. Agentforce ARR rose 205% to $1.2B, Data 360 ARR rose 81% to $1.1B, sales and service seats grew and organic subscription growth sped up to 7.5%. GAAP operating margin rose to 21.8% against an easy 35% potential, and the share count fell 7%. Either management is lying or the stock rises 50%, likely clear by the Q3 print. x.comÂ
Bloomberg Intelligence sees fragmented enterprise-software markets as runway for large vendors to buy share, enter adjacent areas and strengthen AI, data and platforms. Serious software M&A is expected: Guidewire's $1.7B purchase of hyperexponential adds another deal after Salesforce's acquisition of Braze, which opened the gates. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce's strong free cash flow and healthy balance sheet support its setup as enterprise AI adoption, Agentforce and AI-driven workflow automation advance. Its earnings gap on four times average volume has been followed by a tightening formation. x.com x.comÂ
Okta, Salesforce and Atlassian look insanely expensive at nine times forward revenue against roughly 10% year-over-year growth. Many SaaS firms also have high sales and marketing costs. A commenter flags inference spending, which SaaS investors worry could compress margins; if free cash flow, growth, retention or gross margins weaken, their price-to-sales multiples could collapse. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce's proposed Braze acquisition opens another avenue for growth. The $5.7 billion all-cash price raises questions, though quality growth companies command a premium; whether this deal proves worthwhile remains to be seen. Closing is subject to Braze shareholder and regulatory approvals. x.comÂ
Adobe, Salesforce and ServiceNow still generate massive cash flow, push deeper into AI and sit at the center of enterprise operations. Three of the biggest SaaS names remain beaten up in 2026; their valuations have been crushed, but the long-term opportunity may not have been. The market has swung way too far against them. x.comÂ
Salesforce is underweight because it is adding debt for buybacks just as its AI pivot makes growth less certain. It issued $25 billion of senior notes to fund an accelerated buyback, and S&P revised its outlook to negative as leverage nears the 2x downgrade trigger; weak demand forced a 40 basis point concession. Core SaaS growth is slowing to high single digits, and Agentforce plus Data 360, at $2.9 billion ARR, are under 7% of revenue, exposed if AI seat cannibalization outpaces usage credits. … Show more
Software stocks probably have a floor as results challenge fears that AI agents will displace them. Since the June 22 momentum unwind, IGV is up 25% and the SOX index down 22%. Atlassian and Salesforce jumped on solid results, plus an Anthropic deal for Salesforce, and possible Silver Lake interest lifted Workday. A new bullish twist says agents will use software tools 10-100x more than humans. Whether fundamentals back the rally is still open; a likely Fed hike and weak September are risks. … Show more
Salesforce is a buy if Slack has even a 1% chance to win collective intelligence, which @AnjneyMidha sees as a $100B-plus business Slack could win if it really wanted to, though it would require deeper capabilities than a typical enterprise SaaS team has. x.comÂ
Salesforce faces real AI threats: more competition, margin headwinds from compute costs and disruption risk for businesses like Tableau and Service Cloud. Agentforce is showing some momentum, and the stock felt oversold earlier, but it is not attractive at current levels. x.comÂ
Salesforce's sum-of-the-parts case looks secured by Slack alone. Per the quoted post, Salesforce's market cap is about $130 billion, and Slack could probably raise at a $130 billion valuation as a private company as the neutral interface and context layer for AI agents and LLMs. x.comÂ