AXT's permit-backed Q4 outlook weakens the near-term operating objection to the Sell case. Q3 revenue reached $73.4M at 56% GAAP gross margin; management guides to about $90M in Q4 from business permitted or not needing permits. InP contributed $54.3M and backlog exceeds $500M, though much spans years. The remaining test is whether 2027 capacity becomes qualified, permitted shipments at durable margins. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AXT's bull case hinges on supply rather than demand, and China holds many of the cards. Demand is growing strongly, but China can reasonably be expected to favor its own industry and permit exports only where they serve its broader interests, which argues against overly optimistic forecasts. @larmatrade notes over half of revenue is now domestic Chinese; if half of demand is Chinese, AXT should to some extent be valued like a Chinese company, and the market is likely to price it so over time. … Show more

AXT is among the high-growth companies likely to beat 5.2% bond yields: revenue rose 164% year on year and 77% sequentially, and it swung to a profit. As @BULLOFBRITAIN notes, the market is offering 100% growers at a 40% discount because investors want to lock in bond yields. x.com 

Small caps such as AXT that have risen 8,800% in a year at forward P/Es in the hundreds look held by buyers hoping to dump on the next person. Investors should ask who runs them, what the moats are and whether competitors can replicate them; Nvidia's Jensen Huang says most bottlenecks can be solved within a few years, so what happens in 5-10? This pushes back on @aleabitoreddit's claim that AXT controls the materials buildout for photonics. x.com 

AXT looks expensive against its earnings at 28x, versus the roughly 18x chip-equipment makers usually get. At 18x next year's $2.23 EPS, give or take 12%, fair value is $35.26-$44.88, so the $61.64 price is 37% above the high end, with a PEG of 12.09 flagged as bubble territory. The view uses reported earnings and estimates only, without fundamental work. x.com 

AXT sits in the optical upstream, where surging AI compute demand meets supply that cannot be built fast enough. Amazon raised 2026 capex to $220B and said even that won't meet demand, with 2027 also short. AXT posted record revenue of $47.6M, up 164% year over year, record indium phosphide revenue of $30.7M and 45% margins targeting 50%+, and is doubling capacity in both 2026 and 2027 yet still can't keep up. x.com 

AXT's roughly $9B valuation can't be justified by its fundamentals. Even if revenue grows fivefold from $80M to $400M next year, EBIT would still be below $150M, which doesn't support an enterprise value of $9B or even $5B. Beyond short covering, it's hard to see anyone owning AXT at even half today's valuation, despite @aleabitoreddit's view that its indium phosphide substrates are a bottleneck whose contracts predate price hikes. x.com  x.com 

AXT's indium phosphide business is at China's mercy, since its expansion inside China lets Beijing decide every line item on every purchase order. Per a report shared by @wallstengine, US officials are pressing China over delayed InP export approvals as the material becomes an AI data center bottleneck, and AXT says export permits are its biggest challenge. The stock was rejected at resistance despite that news. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AXT is a speculative add on the market's sharp drop, because indium phosphide wafer prices have reportedly risen a lot lately. x.com 

AXT priced its secondary offering a steep 22.5% below the prior close, another sign the company is less legitimate than its choke-point story suggests. It follows the appointment of a CFO who had served a five-year officer ban. x.com