3X Long Labubu
Long-Term Investor, Hobby Trader
Micron's FY2028 earnings could substantially exceed the displayed $206.89 normalized EPS estimate, leaving the shares at about 3x FY2028 EPS. A beat of at least 30-50% depends on demand, pricing, margins and buybacks. x.com
Micron can't meet customer demand, giving it rare visibility at a valuation of about 5x next year's earnings. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said customers are extending agreements into 2031, which gives certainty of demand and lets Micron plan capacity investments with confidence. The stock is now about $1,000, and with potential EPS beats over the next few quarters its forward P/E could be around 5, unthinkable about six months ago. x.com x.com
Micron looks expensive on price-to-book at about 8x versus a historical average of about 2x, and relying on forward P/E for such a cyclical business can be dangerous. x.com
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.com
Micron is a complete bargain at just 12x the most conservative estimate of its FY2027 free cash flow, supporting a $1,800 price target for the end of 2027. If it delivers anything close to the $100 billion of FCF expected, today's price should look like a massive opportunity in hindsight. The shares are down 13% over three months despite a very strong report. x.com
Micron looks like it has to be at the top. The level in question would make it a $5 trillion company, in reply to a post noting that $1 trillion companies seemed wild only about five years ago. x.com x.com
Micron's revenue grew faster than its stock over the past year, leaving it cheaper on trailing earnings. Quarterly revenue rose from $11.3B to $54.2B, while the stock rose from about $198 to $878 and trailing P/E fell from roughly 24x to 11.6x. x.com
Micron trades at an absurd 4-5x P/E on $200–$220 of annual EPS while Wall Street keeps moving the goalposts. On September 30, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra should report $35–$38 of EPS versus guided $30–$31 and call it a structural boom, yet the market will still ask for the next quarter. Free cash flow at levels none of the Big Five match could fund a buyback of up to 40% of its market cap. x.com
Micron faces a 'gravity' setup that will be very hard to break without forecasts and earnings beating expectations by 100%. During the dotcom bubble, Micron hit its 0.618 Fibonacci level as the yield curve uninverted, just as it is doing now: the 10-year/3-month spread is +117 bps, the 30-year yield is nearing 6.0%, HYG has broken its 50-period moving average and LQD looks set to fall toward 2008 lows. x.com x.com
Micron is finally being re-rated after years of persistent doubt, with a price around $1,000 expected as the final sale level. It earns over $80 per share and has moved from the 5x P/E it held for years on cyclicality fears to about 10x. It will probably revert to a cyclical business at some point, but that is hard to see unless a black swan event approaches. x.com