ServiceNow looks cheap at about 9x sales, but its growth is slowing and AI may be able to replace its workflows. Owning it requires believing AI can't do that, which is far from certain, so it is one to stay away from. x.comÂ
Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
ServiceNow's slowing contracted-revenue growth suggests agentic AI and growing open-source alternatives may be reducing the need for its products. Q3 operating margin fell to 9.4% from 16.8% a year earlier, net income dropped, and cRPO growth slowed from 25% to 20.5%; Q4 guidance implies 18.5%. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's guidance growth is set to fall by another fifth next quarter, a poor trajectory rather than a buying opportunity after earnings. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow's seat business is being cannibalized faster than AI deals can replace it. Next-quarter cRPO growth is guided to 18.5%, down from 20.5%, while subscription growth was 24.5% two quarters ago; agentic usage on its platform is up 13x. Management points to AI deal value heading to $1.7bn, against a roughly $16bn subscription business. The slowdown leaves more pain ahead. Underweight, $90 target. x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow still looks too expensive even after falling 60-70% from its highs, given slowing growth, compressing margins, too much dilution and significant future AI risks. @realroseceline notes guidance drove the drop: the Armis acquisition brings temporary margin pressure, current remaining performance obligations are decelerating from 22% to 18%, and stock-based compensation has reaccelerated. x.comÂ
Cost fears and CRPO misunderstandings caused ServiceNow's selloff. The stock is definitely undervalued; the market's reaction is ridiculous. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's growth and deteriorating margins do not justify its valuation. It grew 3% quarter over quarter against a 107x trailing GAAP P/E, and its margins continue to deteriorate. It remains a great company, but is mostly saturated relative to that valuation. x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow's gross profit and expense trends show its underlying business deteriorating despite the AI revenue pitch. Quarterly gross profit grew just over 10% year over year, possibly its slowest pace ever, while expenses rose across the board and profit weakened materially. Relabeling revenue as AI has not changed the trend in total sales. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's AI contract growth and improving free cash flow margin make the 18% selloff excessive and its shares a massive discount among leading enterprise AI companies. AI net-new ACV rose 65%; its 2026 AI ACV target rose to $1.7B, up 70% from the start of the year. Adjusted operating margin slipped to 32.5% from 33.5%, but free cash flow margin rose to 20% from 17.5%. Acquisition costs, stock compensation and severance largely drove the GAAP decline. x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow's 66% stock decline is a warning, not a value opportunity, because the market is discounting AI collapsing the cost of the software it sells. Its revenue grew from $0.2 billion to $4.0 billion a quarter since 2015, a 28.8% compound rate across 44 straight rising quarters, and operations are flawless. But a flawless past is no promise about the future, and when fundamentals and the chart disagree this violently, the chart has the better track record. x.comÂ