Meta's ad engine is still growing, and its higher AI spending comes with a stronger revenue outlook. Revenue was $64.6B versus $63.4B expected, with $63.1B in ads; the Q4 guide midpoint of $74.5B beat $73.7B expected. Meta raised only the capex floor to $135B, leaving the $145B ceiling unchanged. The roughly $10B legal charge depressed reported EPS, not ads. Overweight, $1,004 target with 41% upside. x.com  x.com 

Meta's decade of revenue and operating cash flow growth makes it worth at least $2T. LTM revenue rose from $18B in 2015 to $242B, and operating cash flow from $10B to $133B. A $10B legal charge tied to the teenagers case drove the quarterly EPS miss; without it, EPS would have been $7.40. Quarterly free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over 10 years, raising the question of whether the investment will pay off. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Meta's AI spending is weakening conversion of strong ad growth into profit and cash, making its valuation one to approach patiently, not chase. Revenue rose 26%, but operating profit excluding a legal settlement rose only about 11%; $34.9B in quarterly capex exceeded $32.8B in operating cash flow. AI has helped ads, though other factors contributed. One negative free-cash-flow quarter is not an operating failure, but depreciation could squeeze margins unless new revenue covers costs. x.com 

Meta's valuation is compelling again because its operating-cash-flow multiple has fallen while revenue growth accelerated over the past year. It trades at 12x operating cash flow, close to 10x 2027 operating cash flow. Its unique position should make it one of the AI era's biggest winners, with Muse becoming its best asset in the long run. The equity raise's timing was unwelcome, but that is now behind it. x.com 

Meta's AI infrastructure financing raises the risk that a long wait for revenue and profit will keep its shares volatile. It disclosed plans to raise up to $95 billion. @amitisinvesting warns that further dilution could keep the stock stuck even if the buildout eventually pays off. Meta's selloff is still a massive buying opportunity. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Meta's cash generation turned negative in Q3, coinciding with the start of its share-price slide. It was Meta's first negative free-cash-flow quarter in more than a decade. A $25 billion share sale priced at $625 this week, and the shares are already below that price. x.com 

Meta's early AI monetization in its core business makes the long-term upside potentially far greater than the short-term pain from its planned $95B capital raise and possible dilution. Its fair value is $1,100, and the shares are worth holding for years despite short-term moves. If Meta monetizes the infrastructure, upside is massive; even if it does not, the assets still have value. x.com 

Meta's limited dilution and Muse's potential agent revenue make its valuation hit look excessive. Even if all cash is burned without return, a $625 strike and $28.75B forward sale including the greenshoe imply 69M shares, or 2.7% gross dilution; estimated net dilution is 0.25%. A future $60B net raise is expected to dilute by much less than 1%. Muse reached 5M downloads and 1,500 connectors in 22 days; its agents could need 25GW of internal compute depending on how many 100M users it adds. x.com  … Show more

Meta's heavy spending raises questions about how it will earn a return even if its core business improves. Quarterly free cash flow fell from $13.2 billion in March 2026 to $1.7 billion in June and negative $1.2 billion in September. x.com 

Meta's negative free cash flow from AI capex is an expected investment phase, not a broken thesis. Analysts had forecast deterioration through 2027 as infrastructure spending accelerates, followed by a sharp recovery in 2028 as those investments begin generating cash. The market is treating known spending as a surprise, creating an opportunity while Meta builds infrastructure for the next decade of AI. x.com