Zscaler's forward guide was gross and undercuts management's credibility. CEO Jay Chaudhry claimed that once growth fell below 30%, the company would see operating leverage every year; that promise now looks false. x.comÂ
Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan
Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels
Zscaler's thesis has broken because management is not the right leadership, with the CEO's friends and family controlling every step. Revenue growth may stop accelerating, the bottom line has gotten worse, and without earnings support the valuation is hard to gauge. The stock fell 17% after hours as a disappointing guide overshadowed a double beat, per The Transcript. x.comÂ
Zscaler's management is undermining trust in the stock even after a quarter that beat on revenue, EPS, billings and guidance. On the call the CFO offered a 16-17% FY27 guide before FY26 ended and contradicted himself, leaving investors scared. FCF margin guidance fell on higher data center capex, with 2027 capex guided another 200bp of revenue higher. Mythos looks like the real value-add, making cybersecurity names look like resale wrappers around AI LLMs. Very tough for long-term holders. x.com … Show more
Zscaler should sell off on its guide for 9.5% organic ARR growth in fiscal 2027. That makes it a slow-moving software company with excellent dollar-based net retention but a withering growth engine, not an AI winner. x.comÂ
Zscaler's enforcement layer looks undervalued, since AI commoditizes tools that produce answers but strengthens tools that enforce decisions. As a cloud proxy every user session must pass through, replacing it means re-architecting traffic, not swapping vendors. It trades at 8.6 times EV/sales on 25% growth, 47% below its 52-week high, with $1.11B of free cash flow and net cash. The case fails if Palo Alto, Netskope or Cisco make enforcement a checkbox in a platform bundle. x.comÂ
Zscaler's after-hours rally is paying for profit, not growth, and the growth outlook remains weak. It beat every line, but reaffirmed fiscal 2027 ARR growth of 16.6% to 17.4%, the framework that sank the stock 31% in May, implying net new ARR down 13% to 17%; excluding Red Canary, organic net new ARR is roughly flat. Q4 free cash flow margin fell to 7% from 24% as capex nearly tripled, and the flat 23.0-23.5% FY27 margin guide rests on a memory-price assumption. x.comÂ
Zscaler is not cheap at 40x earnings, about double an initial guess of 20x. @StockSavvyShay pulled up the real figure live on air ahead of Zscaler's Thursday report. x.comÂ
Zscaler is a no-brainer at this price, and selling it on a small Q4 revenue guidance miss makes no sense. Q3 beat on revenue ($850M vs $836M), EPS, operating income and ARR ($3.53B), and Q4 EPS guidance of $1.09 topped the $1.04 estimate, while revenue guidance was $877M versus $879M, per @StockSavvyShay. x.com x.comÂ
Zscaler is now better used as a source of funds, since many cheap companies look better than it. It was attractive when it was cheap and nothing else was. At $150 it would become a great trade and source of funds. x.com x.comÂ
Zscaler likely needs to broaden its product scope, or Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike will dominate security through organic growth and acquisitions. Palo Alto grows about 14% organically and mid-20s including acquisitions and, with 4x Zscaler's revenue, commands 10x EV/sales; CrowdStrike, at 2x Zscaler's revenue, gets the same multiple. Scale is being rewarded. x.comÂ
Zscaler looks like the better cybersecurity buy for the next three years because its valuation has diverged sharply from CrowdStrike's. Zscaler trades at 5.7x next-twelve-month revenue with 17-18% expected annual growth, versus CrowdStrike at 31.1x revenue and 150x earnings with 21-22% growth, probably the biggest gap ever between them. A 25% CAGR over 3-5 years is hard to model for CrowdStrike at that price. Zscaler has been beaten up for good reasons. x.com x.comÂ
Zscaler stands to benefit as AI's growth raises security needs, a point Elon Musk and Dario Amodei just emphasized, making large pullbacks in the sector a buying opportunity. Q2 revenue was $898M, up 25% year over year, ARR reached $3.77B, AI security bookings rose 50% sequentially, the Z-Flex program reached $770M in quarterly contract value, and non-GAAP operating margin hit a record 24.3%. x.comÂ