Nvidia's cash could have more value invested in AI companies with strong demand but too little capital to scale, especially neoclouds that can execute. Their valuations look very attractive now, making equity stakes preferable to more buybacks or dividends despite criticism of circular deals. SpaceX may need the money less because it is already very big. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nvidia's CUDA retains developers, putting it among 12 stocks that could dominate the decade ahead. Nebius's GPU rental price rise signals demand; Fabrinet and Credo supply AI connectivity. DraftKings has betting scale; Microsoft has Azure and an OpenAI partnership; Figma anchors design work; Shopify powers stores. TeraWulf pivots power sites to AI leases; Constellation, the largest US nuclear operator, signs big-tech power deals; Meta spends on AI; Uber has autonomous-vehicle partnerships. x.com  … Show more

Nvidia's equity-investment book makes earnings vulnerable to an AI valuation downturn even if GPU sales hold up. Private and public stakes totaled about $99bn, or 31% of assets, in July; gains were $15.9bn in April and $7.8bn in July. Private holdings are marked on observable transactions or impairments, so losses could arrive in lumps. Nvidia generated about $127bn of free cash flow over four quarters, and the filing does not split private stakes by sector. x.com  x.com 

Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com 

SpaceX's exclusive use of Nvidia GPUs and other supply constraints make Musk's 13-20 GW operational compute forecast for end-2027 too high. A substantial buildout is still incredibly enticing, but reaching that scale likely requires cheap capacity from struggling neoclouds, mostly through capacity deals and some acquisitions. Its attractive $40B off-balance-sheet GPU lease deal is only a drop in the bucket of the debt needed. Capacity can still grow quickly over time. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Nvidia's AI profits are real, but its compute demand depends heavily on fragile venture funding. Per Chamath, 1% of firms account for 90% of AI spending, and 72 cents of each dollar comes from unprofitable VC-backed firms. Venture money passes through startups to Nvidia and cloud suppliers; if the next raises fail, concentrated orders could contract together. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com  x.com 

CoreWeave's leveraged GPU rentals make its financing loop vulnerable to higher rates or a slipped contract. Despite $2.5B+ quarterly revenue and $104B backlog, debt is $21-25B with up to $68B in potential future obligations, $35-39B planned 2026 capex and -$4.7B free cash flow last quarter. Nvidia's $2B equity investment funds purchases of Nvidia chips, and Nvidia backstops $6.3B of unsold capacity through 2032. Demand is pulled forward with debt; either trigger unwinds the loop. x.com 

Financing risk makes AI-linked growth stocks unattractive to add here. Much of the money reaching suppliers such as Nvidia and Micron is financed, so harder funding would limit spending on chips, compute and memory. The buildout is not over, but stock prices could remain suppressed until it slows. A significant drawdown would make adding appealing; for many high-beta names with weak fundamentals and balance sheets, the highs look to be in. x.com 

Demand for Nvidia chips remains robust, and the stock could rally to a $273 technical target, where this rally would match the last one in size. SpaceX reportedly raising $40 billion through loans and bonds to buy Nvidia chips has helped bring it close to a first-ever $6 trillion value. The multi-model signal is a mixed long. The risk is that customers are taking on heavy debt to pay, feeding Michael Burry's demand-whip theory and raising credit risk if end demand falls short. x.com