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TechStockFundamentals

Technology Investor with ~25 Years of Experience, Former Hedge Fund Manager for 10 Years

11 Aug, 17:21Latest

Uber's super-app case for autonomous rides is weak because AV providers will want to own the customer directly. Each market will likely have only 2-3 AV players, so riders can go straight to the one they prefer, as with an airline, and AV firms gain little from paying Uber a commission beyond initial ramp-up. A former Waymo employee expects AVs to take 80-90% of ride-hailing within 10 years, sees aggregator partnerships like Uber's as transitional, and says only a few large players can succeed. x.com

UBER

5 Aug, 15:45

Uber is over-earning in core metros, and autonomous vehicles threaten its marketplace. Drivers often keep under 60%, sometimes under 50%, of a fare, and wage pressure is selecting for worse cars and drivers, so riders complain about junky Ubers as they once did about taxis. Waymo shows riders how much nicer AVs are; share shift is just a matter of availability. Rides are local commodities, so riders will check the one to three local AV apps directly; there is no Expedia-style aggregation need. x.com x.com

UBER

Techquity

Technology Investor, Fundamental Research

16 Oct

UBER

Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com

BuccoCapital Bloke

Technology & Markets Writer for Educated Guess

17 Mar

UBER

Uber's demand-side scale could let it aggregate fragmented or commoditized autonomous vehicle supply, though judging by the stock price nobody believes this. @WaterworldCapi1 argues autonomy at scale removes the need for its driver network and invites many competitors. But scaling rivals may not be cheap, Uber need not build its own fleets, and the shift will take decades, giving a hybrid network time. The stock becomes interesting only if the price gets low enough. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Brad Thomas

Founder & Lead Analyst of Wide Moat Research

30 Sep

UBER

Robotaxis could widen Uber's moat rather than destroy it, because its real advantage is the network matching huge pools of demand with whatever supply is available, not drivers' lack of negotiating power. Robotaxis change the supply but don't eliminate the network. The question is whether Uber becomes the toll road for autonomous mobility, letting Waymo and dozens of competing AV suppliers fight over the economics while Uber owns the customer, demand and dispatch layer. x.com

CDM Capital

Institutional Allocator, Ex-Portfolio Manager/Buy-Side Analyst, Value Equities

10 Sep

UBER

Uber has big long-term secular problems, enough to make even CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10M token insider buy a moment to consider shorting, though actually shorting is not recommended. Beyond the Waymo and robotaxi threat, an AI agent that constantly checks every app for the best price would hurt Uber, consistently the highest-priced ride service. Uber would need to lower prices, and it lacks the tech stack. x.com x.com

Jonah Lupton

CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth

25 Jul

UBER

Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com x.com x.com

Gary Black

Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager of The Future Fund

5 Sep

UBER

Uber's 215 million monthly active users are the distribution an autonomous-vehicle maker would need, so a manufacturer launching its own robotaxi app cannot easily scale. @NehasThomas argues manufacturers will skip Uber for their own apps, citing Tesla's robotaxi app trending above Uber in downloads. x.com

Serenity

AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader

24 Jul

LYFT

UBER

Waymo is becoming the strongest disruptor to Uber and Lyft in US ride-hailing. Autonomous vehicles can compress the cost and margins of human ride-share sharply, and riders pick the cheapest option, where Waymo or Tesla would likely win; a Waymo rival to Uber Eats could do the same to delivery. Per the FT, Waymo is exploring a split from Uber, which only ever served as Google's distribution funnel. The near-term impact is negligible, but long term both look cooked in the US unless they act. … Show more

Ross Gerber

CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, Portfolio Manager of GK ETF

14 Aug

UBER

Uber faces a race to the bottom as ride-hailing becomes commoditized and prices keep falling, leaving all players losing. The winners in such markets sell something else, the way Google and Amazon make money from ads. x.com

Emil Hartela

Independent Equity Research, Alternative Data & Primary Research

16 Aug

LYFT

UBER

Uber and Lyft should gain from autonomy, because self-driving developers cannot afford to own the cars, leaving financed local fleets competing for demand the platforms hold. Replacing 10% of US driving takes 2-3 million robotaxis worth $150-300 billion. Robotaxi miles at $0.40-0.60 would undercut car ownership, growing ride-hail roughly 10x. Yet Uber trades near 14x trailing free cash flow and Lyft at single digits. Risks include first-party AV apps, maps or AI agents and safety shocks. x.com

TheValueist

Discretionary Long/Short Investor, TMT/Energy, Convexity & Factor Awareness

26 Mar

LYFT

UBER

Cheap AI-generated code lets new entrants like Empower upend Uber's and Lyft's commission-based rideshare model. Empower is exploding in New York City by charging drivers a monthly software subscription, roughly $40 to $350, while they keep 100% of the fare and set their own rates, so drivers can earn more and riders may pay less. The same disruption will happen in many other industries. x.com

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