Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Rocket Lab is becoming a vertically integrated space enterprise, putting it in a different league from AST SpaceMobile. It is one of only two companies that can routinely launch to orbit, and Electron's backlog is booming after its largest commercial contract ever, 20 launches for Synspective, bringing that customer to 47. Neutron is likely in early 2027. At about twice AST's market cap, that gap should keep growing over the years even if both succeed. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab will be a long-term bargain at a $38B market cap because its execution is excellent at the fundamental level. It keeps identifying market opportunities, building products and seizing markets, most recently with its Ghost platform. The chart is hanging by a thread and more short-term pain is possible, but only a real fundamental problem, such as a catastrophic Neutron launch failure, would justify caution. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's expanding contracted work improves medium- and long-term revenue visibility. Synspective added 20 dedicated Electron launches for 2028-31, bringing its total to 47; backlog reached $2.4 billion after more than $1 billion in Q2 and early-Q3 awards. Space Systems broadens the business beyond launches, while Neutron's medium-lift upside still depends on reaching operational orbit. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's growing Space Systems business positions it to provide more than launches for the space economy. It generated $189.5M in Q2, 81% of revenue; if its pending Iridium acquisition closes, it would gain a global satellite communications network. At about $51, this is one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in the space sector over 3-5 years, provided it keeps executing. Neutron's launch has slipped to 2027, and execution risks remain. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's Neutron delay could drag public space stocks down because the space basket usually trades together. Rocket Lab is likely to pull AST SpaceMobile down with it, especially in a bad market. The delay also pushes back a possible AST launch on Neutron, though that launch was not expected and the news is not necessarily bad for AST directly. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is underestimated as a launch company when it is building a broader space infrastructure business, where satellites, components, spacecraft systems and national-security demand could matter as much as launches. It just signed its largest commercial Electron deal by mission count, 20 launches for Synspective from 2028 to 2031, per Wall St Engine, pushing its launch backlog above 100 missions. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
Repeated Neutron delays undermine the premium on Rocket Lab stock when execution keeps slipping. The company does not live or die by Neutron, but 50x sales was unjustified; even at 26x 2027 sales, a legitimate price suggests another 50% decline. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's 58% drop from its high on the Iridium deal financing is the entry for a five-year hold. The $8B Iridium acquisition adds a 66-satellite constellation with over $870M of annual revenue, turning a launch company into an end-to-end space business. Revenue grew 62% to $234M last quarter, backlog rose 137% to $2.36B with a record 90+ launches booked, Electron is 13 for 13 this year, and Neutron is targeted for the pad in Q4. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's launch business gets a major boost from Electron's largest commercial launch contract ever, 20 new launches for Earth-observation operator Synspective, per Rocket Lab. That brings Synspective to 47 Electron launches in total, the most of any Rocket Lab customer, as Synspective builds out its low Earth orbit constellation through 2031. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
