Apple will keep hitting all-time highs because it makes money off Alphabet and both companies capture a return on that relationship, so negative takes on Siri AI, like @anandragn's, can be ignored. The near term is uncertain. x.com
Research & Invest
Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background
Apple and DRAM suppliers could be huge hidden beneficiaries as AI moves on-premises, while most investors focus only on Nvidia. Enterprises could spend just $20K-30K on Mac Studios running open models such as DeepSeek V4 and save millions in token costs, with an ROI that feels under 12 months. Per @sebkrier, DeepSeek V4 lags leading US models by about eight months. x.com
Apple is a safe haven amid AI-stock volatility and will gain momentum if it persists over the next two weeks through the midterms. New products and another defensive day bring a momentum push toward $358, then $367 in November closer. x.com
Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com x.com
Apple's roughly 35x forward earnings premium looks unsustainable. If fear around the AI trade fades, its gains could stall or reverse. x.com x.com
Apple has the most predictable cash flows, including future cash flows, and that dependability appears to be what investors reward. Its P/E is about 40 versus 27 for Nvidia, 22 for Meta and 16 for Alphabet; Meta's free cash flow has turned negative. Leveraged build-out companies have been hit hardest while Apple has outperformed, but Apple investors could be wrong and the point at which its premium becomes too high remains open. x.com x.com x.com
Apple's balance sheet and lack of spend keep a bid under its stock whether the market rises or falls. That bid gets stronger with foldable phones that break. x.com
Apple's valuation pays too hefty a premium for its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 2.58; even if the market sees its hardware moat and ability to exploit others' AI investments despite underinvesting itself as a winning strategy, that premium is too high. x.com
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Alphabet is cheaper than Apple while growing at twice Apple's rate. Critics worry about a drop in free cash flow, but for those who believe in the company that could present a substantial opportunity. x.com
Apple's roughly 40 times trailing and 37 times forward earnings make the shares too expensive ahead of next week's results. A short looks reasonable, though a sell-the-news reaction after earnings remains uncertain. x.com x.com
Apple is increasingly rewarded as a good steward of capital in the AI race, an AI beneficiary and a safe haven from the capex wars. In a recession triggered by an AI bubble popping, Apple would be the ultimate consumer staple and surprise to the upside, potentially scooping up AI infrastructure cheaply and benefiting from local LLMs. x.com