Palantir's blowout quarter shows software is far from finished. Revenue grew 93% YoY and GAAP EPS more than 200%, pushing its P/E down toward 50. x.comÂ
John Tinsman
Founder of AOT Invest, Portfolio Manager of AOTG/AOTS ETFs
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.comÂ
Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir still trades at 87 times sales even after falling 20% this year. x.comÂ
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.comÂ
Palantir keeps printing growth that software companies at its scale are not supposed to achieve. Revenue grew 93% year over year last quarter, US commercial revenue grew 149%, and full-year guidance was raised to 82% growth. x.comÂ
Palantir's share price demands unusually fast cash and profit growth despite its strong business. At roughly $210, it implies 48.5% annual growth for five years; at 32% annual growth, the shares would be worth $96.64. It is a Watch, not a Buy at today's prices. Q2 sales rose 93% and cash flow after employee stock pay was $2.52 billion over 12 months, but government concentration, cancellable contracts and rising stock pay remain risks. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir was undervalued going into Q2, and its results prove it. Revenue rose 93% YoY and EBITDA 155%, and with estimates rising it entered earnings at under 45x NTM EBITDA, perhaps closer to 40x, too cheap for 90-95% revenue growth at 62% EBITDA margins. The sell side's 45-50% revenue CAGR for 2027-2030 looks achievable or even conservative, implying $25-30B of 2030 EBITDA or free cash flow before any acquisitions. x.comÂ
Palantir's accelerating commercial growth, sticky contracts and high margins make it a standout aggressive growth name despite its premium valuation. Q1 2026 revenue rose 85% to $1.63B, US commercial revenue grew 133% and government 84%, and full-year guidance was raised to about 71% growth. CEO Alex Karp cites overwhelming demand it cannot fully meet, showing real platform adoption rather than hype. x.comÂ
Palantir Technologies is exceptional as a business but overpriced at about 90 times forward earnings, so much of its future is already paid for. Revenue is growing 85% with a 60% operating margin, 150% net dollar retention and about $7.7 billion in revenue guided for the year, numbers that are genuinely rare at its size. Being right about the business and wrong about the price is still a loss. x.comÂ
Palantir makes an amazing product no one else can match, and once customers are in the system it becomes incredibly difficult to leave. That has driven immense growth in customers, earnings and backlog, making it one of five growth stocks set to dominate over the next decade. x.comÂ