Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
US large-cap equities should keep rising because tailwinds far outweigh headwinds, making any dip a buy. Endless money printing inevitably flows into equities, the AI revolution is arriving with robotics close behind, and S&P companies are reporting surging earnings beats. The AI and robotics revolution isn't remotely priced in, as labor costs trend toward zero while corporate profits keep rising. Elliott wave calls for a historic top miss this broader picture. x.comÂ
The S&P 500 is in a generational bull market at the onset of a new industrial revolution, so small pullbacks would be healthy and worth buying. SPY is up 58% from April 2026 lows and less than 2% off highs, and the volatile AI buildout theme appears to have put in a dramatic bottom, with even Berkshire going long Alphabet. Retests of $720 or $690 would be buys. Short-term headwinds such as a yen carry trade unwind or rising sovereign yields should be overwhelmed by the AI and robotics tailwind. x.com x.comÂ
US equities look super bullish on the prospect of faster economic growth. Elon Musk says US GDP will grow 'far beyond' 4% per year. x.comÂ
Strong corporate profit margins may make the S&P 500 better value than traditional P/E ratios suggest, despite elevated stock prices. Per Bloomberg, its P/E-to-profitability ratio is at its lowest in nearly 14 years, last seen around 2012. Wall Street might be overlooking something important. x.comÂ
Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.comÂ
US large caps and the strongest AI names can rip higher after the Fed's rate hike pushed stocks down to critical support. If SPY holds above the mid-750s this week, it could rise above 765 over the next couple of weeks, implying 15-25%+ gains in AI stocks such as Marvell, Bloom Energy, Nebius, Intel, Nvidia, AMD, Dell, HPE and Qualcomm. Tech names Meta, Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft also look bullish as rotations continue. x.comÂ
SPY's current pullback looks brief because whale accumulation remains above the level associated with mid-term trend continuation. The reading is 87.74%; it fell below 80% before both recent major crashes. Barring a black-swan event or major unexpected fundamental shift, this decline looks closer to earlier minor corrections. The stock market still has significant upside, and fear-driven discounts remain opportunities. x.com x.comÂ
Expensive borrowing makes debt-funded AI projects harder to justify, pressuring AI stocks and the S&P 500. Inflation keeps pressure on rates. If Republicans lose Congress after the midterms, Trump could rely on executive action to speed permits, power projects and existing funding programs, keeping AI investment moving despite expensive money. Tech and risk assets could catch a bid if earnings hold and bond yields settle; Fed cuts remain uncertain. x.comÂ
US large-cap earnings are strong and the consumer is healthy, undercutting the bearish case. Per Bank of America's Savita, with 90% of S&P 500 companies reported, 76% beat and earnings grew 30% excluding one-time gains, while spending by lower-income and younger cohorts has improved. She is not in the Burry camp. x.comÂ
Far less inflated valuations and significant AI earnings make US equities unlike the dot-com market top. AI/SI spending may still be overexuberant. Rates and yields have returned to historical averages; more oil through the Strait of Hormuz and from OPEC and Russia should lower oil and inflation. The market may not have bottomed yet, but falling yields, steady rates and the midterms passing should let it climb the wall of worry. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rising inflation, costlier AI infrastructure financing and growing Iran escalation risk point to the final major S&P 500 correction before the biggest phase of the AI boom. The index is near its 125-day average; its last break below in March was followed by another 10% drop. Keep cash ready: the next sell-off will create generational buying opportunities as neoclouds and hyperscalers turn infrastructure spending into explosive revenue and earnings growth. x.comÂ
The S&P 500 is not about to top or crash like 2008 because AI is in its early phase, not its late one. AI and robotics will lead the next 5-10 years and replace everyday and service jobs, while AI speeds innovation faster than people can keep up. It is the biggest change in a century, and the next 5-10 years will set the path for the next 100. x.comÂ
