John Tinsman
Founder of AOT Invest, Portfolio Manager of AOTG/AOTS ETFs
SK hynix's earnings are being grossly underestimated, leaving the stock cheap at an annualized GAAP P/E of 4.4. Revenue grew 257% year over year and diluted GAAP EPS 1,052%; last quarter analysts expected $4.50 of EPS and SK hynix reported $9.07. The bear case that this is a cyclical peak ignores hyperscalers' firm capex commitments and management's stated spending projections. x.comÂ
SK hynix remains a buying opportunity, with its US ADR premium over Korean shares now at an all-time low of 32.66%. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix should reprice strongly because its blowout earnings make the case that memory is structurally different now. At the current earnings pace, it would earn back its entire market cap in two years; buybacks and dividends also return cash to shareholders and add to value. x.comÂ
SK hynix was priced to perfection, and its relisting into QQQ was meant to drive it higher, but it missed its first quarter after going public, which a newly listed company can't afford to do. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix's reported growth and shareholder returns make its low earnings multiple stand out. Revenue rose 328% year over year and operating profit 632%, with shareholder returns worth about 9.5% of market cap, yet the stock trades at roughly 3.0 times estimated 2027 earnings. x.comÂ
SK hynix's record earnings and five-year volume and spec agreements make its valuation look too low. Quarterly revenue reached KRW104.62T, up 32%, and operating profit hit $63B against a $785B market cap, below AMD's and less than half Tesla's. Its planned KRW100T (~$75B) shareholder return would be one of the world's largest, signaling conviction and unusual demand visibility. AI-inference 3D DRAM is coming by 2030; a reasonable valuation is all that is sought. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
The DRAM ETF looks better than SK hynix's ADR, which trades at a 23% premium to its Korean-listed shares. That premium should shrink further after July 29, when Korea enables two-way exchange between common shares and ADRs and lists the ADRs locally, making the Korea ETF or DRAM the smarter buy. x.comÂ
SK hynix's earnings and buybacks could drive a tripling by 2027 before a re-rating, on Jonah Lupton's assumptions. Its Q3 report expects memory demand to outpace supply through 2030 as advanced processes and fab lead times constrain growth. It plans about KRW 100 trillion in FY2026 shareholder returns, including KRW 60 trillion or more in share acquisitions or cancellations; the buybacks would first reduce shares outstanding. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix's Korean shares look set to rally because its ADR trades at a 35% premium to the Korean listing. Short sellers trying to arbitrage that gap in the $30 billion ADR are getting crushed, a detail missing from coverage of the stock's 27% one-day jump noted by @TheStalwart. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix looks like the weakest storage short because it has fallen behind. More negative news may follow beyond HBM4; its LPDDR6 is reportedly well behind Samsung's. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix is better owned on the Korean exchange than through its US listing. The US shares trade at a market value more than $300B above the Korean shares, a 35% premium, and the ADR adds country, compliance and exchange risks. Investors wanting US-listed memory exposure could simply combine Micron and Sandisk. x.comÂ