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Dr J Rould

Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background

26 Sep, 13:09Latest

Definium Therapeutics has turned from a high-risk bet into a much safer biotech investment after its single-dose DT120 cleared phase 3 in three of four major trials, all headed to the FDA together. Success in the fourth looks priced in, so full FDA approval is the next catalyst, plus possible Trump administration psychedelics moves. Analyst targets of $70-90 could be reached with commercialization in a couple of years, though more multibaggers are unlikely. Support should hold near $35. x.com

DFTX

14 Sep, 12:52

DT120 is now three for three in Definium Therapeutics' trials, strengthening the case for a single-dose psychedelic treatment reaching market. Two generalized anxiety disorder trials and one major depressive disorder trial were positive, another depression trial is underway, and the FDA has granted breakthrough-therapy designation. Commercial rollout in early 2028 is a reasonable target. One dose is proving an order-of-magnitude improvement over a lifetime of daily SSRIs plus therapy. x.com

DFTX

Special Situations & Volatility Investor, Wall Street Background

18 Oct

Significant discounts to broader pharmaceutical industry valuations on projected 2031 earnings make some high-quality mid-cap biotech stocks attractive. Many have cleared Phase 3 trials or reached more advanced stages, and some may reach profitability without more capital, an advantage if financing tightens. Selling these stocks to chase speculative biotech or large pharma at historically elevated multiples makes little sense. x.com

Biotech2k

Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery

24 Mar

AXSM

Axsome Therapeutics is a one-hit wonder rather than a broad pipeline of blockbusters. It has one good drug in Auvelity, and the rest of its drugs are very weak. Excitement around the upcoming PDUFA date is a chance to sell at a premium price. x.com

Thierry from arvy

CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing

19 Aug

ARKG

IBB

The biotech and genomics boom is best owned broadly, because single biotech stocks are binary bets on trial results no analyst can handicap. One failed readout can halve a stock, as Novo Nordisk's lost market value on disappointing data showed. Owning blue-chip biotech and high-beta genomics as diversified baskets captures the funding rebound, the AI drug-discovery tailwind and the re-rating after years of deep bear market and a decisive breakout, without the single-molecule lottery. x.com x.com … Show more

peony

Equity Investor & Researcher

23 Apr

HELP

Helus Pharma offers the most outsized upside in psychedelics: political tailwinds may push some therapies through on weak evidence, and it trades at a tenth of Compass Pathways' and ATAI's valuations. Approval costs politicians little, with Leucovorin and peptides as precedents and Joe Rogan's sway possibly feeding midterms. Helus posted the best efficacy, on a small sample. It just raised cash and rarely raises opportunistically, while ATAI and Compass need cash, so downside looks lowest. x.com … Show more

Evan Medeiros

Founder of Trade Risk, Rules-Based Trading Systems, End-of-Day Investing

5 Apr

IBB

XBI

Biotech looks like a sector that wants to trend higher. Biotech M&A drove a heavy-volume weekly move to the top of a multi-month range; it just needs some help from the macro environment. x.com

Brian G

Engineer & CFA, Trend-Based Market Analysis

3 Apr

IBB

XBI

Biotech stocks are breaking out of a five-year range because the threat from oil and interest rates was priced in years ago. Many of the most undervalued growth stocks are now in biotech, and research discovery is getting a boost from AI, making it perhaps the sector with most to gain from AI productivity. Charts support it: daily volume spikes have tended to mark major bottoms, the weekly held its quarterly averages to form a base, and the monthly shows a healthy pullback to the one-year EMA. … Show more

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