TransDigm is only a buy around $500 given its leverage, regulatory risk and reliance on pricing. Trading below its 200-day moving average also sets a much higher bar for buying. x.com 

Ferrari remains expensive because bulls ignored its capitalized R&D, overstating free cash flow. At the peak the stock traded near a 1% FCF yield, and dividends plus buybacks only ever covered about half the quoted FCF, leaving some €400M unexplained. Even at about 25x FCF it would be only cheap-ish when TransDigm or Moody's, growing 6-8% for years, trade at 25-30x, and Ferrari is still materially above that despite a 43% drawdown, its largest ever, per @Fiscal_ai. x.com  x.com  x.com 

TransDigm looks more reasonably valued after its forward P/E fell from 40x to 27x on a $1.5B market value drop for withdrawing from a $1B acquisition. Walking away shows discipline, even though acquisitions are where TransDigm makes great money. @PythiaR argues the real issue is the DOJ's signal on its ability to do M&A, a key growth driver given its lack of engine exposure; that makes things a little tougher, but the company will find a way. x.com  x.com  x.com 

GE Aerospace earns most of its money servicing a huge installed engine base, and record air traffic keeps that base turning. Engines sell at up to 70% off, while shop visits bring up to 70% of lifetime revenue; services were about 70% of 2025's $42B revenue, with a $210B backlog. At 43x earnings versus a 37x five-year average it is not cheap, a premium backed by the end of the conglomerate discount, margins and visibility. A correction would come only with a normal general market pullback. x.com  … Show more

UnitedHealth's debt has to come down to a manageable $20-30B, which would also cut interest expense, and the institutions, TV contributors and big retail accounts pumping it like the next Nvidia are ignoring that. Health insurance is not going away, but the numbers matter more than the hype. x.com 

TransDigm's pricing power on critical sole-source parts plus disciplined capital recycling is why its multiple has held for a decade. About 90% of sales are proprietary and three-quarters sole source, with high-margin aftermarket at 55% of revenue; organic sales grew 13% last quarter. About $2.6B of free cash flow funds bolt-on deals and buybacks, with leverage at 5.8x. At about 18 times EBITDA after an 18% drop, cooling engine aftermarket growth should narrow the gap and rerate it. x.com  x.com  … Show more

TransDigm's valuation has normalized to roughly the same multiple as 10 years ago, which looks reasonable, even cheap. Organic growth prospects are probably as good as before and COVID proved the business is a cockroach. Against that, M&A is less of an opportunity now given the law of large numbers, and rates are higher. It is probably less undervalued today than a decade ago, but not by much. x.com  x.com 

TransDigm is run by an elite capital allocator, and compounding long-term with one is what it takes to outperform the market. During the 2008 financial crisis it paid a special dividend equal to 17% of its market cap, showing absolute shareholder alignment under Nick Howley. x.com