Okta, Salesforce and Atlassian look insanely expensive at nine times forward revenue against roughly 10% year-over-year growth. Many SaaS firms also have high sales and marketing costs. A commenter flags inference spending, which SaaS investors worry could compress margins; if free cash flow, growth, retention or gross margins weaken, their price-to-sales multiples could collapse. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

HubSpot could have bottomed because its business held up through the stock's collapse while buybacks cut its share count. Q2 revenue grew 19.8% and free cash flow 44% year over year; net shares fell 4.4% last quarter. Shares trade at 17.5x free cash flow versus a two-year mean of 45x. All four models now agree. The 12-month bear, base and bull paths are $274, $317 and $360, respectively; November 4 Q3 results are the next test. x.com 

HubSpot is the only apps company ripping the bandaid off by moving away from seat-based pricing, even if that means lower growth in the near term. Enterprise SaaS only starts to work after a total reset of pricing toward consumption-based models, which also resets near-term revenue growth and margins. x.com 

HubSpot is a bullish pick. x.com 

HubSpot is the same great company at a completely different valuation, about 2x EV/sales and 10x EV/free cash flow versus 25x EV/sales five years ago. It is much bigger, still grows at solid double digits, has much stronger cash flow and high gross margins. x.com 

Amazon's AWS growth still drives its valuation, making the post-earnings decline look temporary despite misses elsewhere. AWS grew 39% to $46 billion, above the $45.4 billion expected; Jassy sees growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Earnings, advertising and Q4 sales guidance missed expectations, while trailing free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion. x.com  x.com 

Rapid revenue growth makes the capex bear case harder to justify for Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Their latest cited growth rates are 18%, 23%, 28% and 16% in Q2, respectively; their scale does not seem to be slowing them as expected. x.com 

HubSpot is mathematically on track to accelerate, not die, because it has grown net new ARR faster than total revenue for about six straight quarters. Its failure to capture agent spending is a real and existential threat, but that is priced in and the game is not over. Exposure to SaaS remains small, so this is reasoning rather than table-pounding. x.com  x.com 

Amazon's accelerating AWS growth at high margins shows the strength of its moat, but returns on heavy capex remain unproven. AWS grew 39% to $46B, its fastest growth in nearly five years, at a 38.7% operating margin; Amazon posted record operating income. Online stores grew 2%, while ads grew 11%, down from 26% last quarter. Trailing free cash flow fell to -$42.4B as net capex reached $210.7B. Returns on about $220B of planned 2026 capex remain the open question, with free cash flow the test. … Show more

HubSpot is a long with much better management than peers, while monday.com is AI roadkill; the two are the only real comparables. Its valuation case needs realism, though: @CeleritasRe sees 2x forward sales as absurdly cheap if it reaches 30% terminal margins on 20% growth, but those margins are unlikely at that growth, and HubSpot is growing 17%. x.com  x.com