Sachin Sharma
Investor, 22+ Years in Oil/Gas/Energy, SLB & MBB Background
AMD's parabolic move rests more on results and long sustained performance than Intel's, whose rally carries a much larger share of hype and expectations. Cards are stacking for Intel, but it has 15 years of poor performance behind it and should not be expected to execute like AMD in the near term. x.com
AMD is held for its strong earnings growth, which, when it continues into the next quarter, is a reason to own a company beyond a good-looking chart. Price and risk then decide whether to take the trade. x.com
AMD is seeing the largest institutional accumulation campaign ever in the stock, which favors further upside. It drew $1T in buy volume last quarter, larger than when the stock was at $200 or $100, and the daily chart shows clear institutional buying through the end of June. It is now forming an inside bar while holding support, with an inefficiently open area on the monthly chart. x.com
AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com x.com
Nvidia offers better risk/reward than AMD because the growth gap between them is small while the valuation gap is wide. Nvidia is expected to grow earnings about 45% a year through 2028 versus about 43% for AMD, yet trades near 15x 2028 earnings against AMD's 30x. AMD is still liked long term, and MI450 and Helios could be huge and win it share, but the market already prices in much more of that upside. Nvidia's estimates can also keep rising, at larger scale and with stronger margins. x.com … Show more
AMD has more AI accelerator market-share potential than the 7% forecast suggests. The more likely outcome is at least 15%-20% share, versus the forecast quoted from @pequityresearch. x.com
Insufficient substrate supply may cap AMD's growth because the company has not secured enough capacity. The author says limited substrate availability drove AMD's lowered guidance, making supply-chain execution the constraint on how far it can grow. This adds an execution risk to the earlier concern that AMD is too expensive to buy despite strong results. x.com x.com
AMD is leading semiconductors and could reach $650 in the next three months, as Q4 should be a strong push for the sector. Its mean reversion off $440 a few weeks ago shows it wants to go much higher. The $565–530 zone is the level to watch for a break and flip into support. x.com
AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.com
AMD is the last AI name left to crack on valuation and should fall below $200-$225, likely within 12-15 months. AI suppliers such as Arm, Marvell, Bloom Energy and Astera Labs are already getting smoked on valuations, while hyperscalers like Alphabet and Microsoft are being punished. x.com x.com
AMD has plenty of room to run as it breaks all-time highs, because AI demand is exploding and the company is just getting started. The economy is still growing strongly and tech innovation is accelerating, while bears have called for a crash for years as the market kept climbing. x.com