MSCI trades at one of its lowest valuations ever, even though its fundamentals keep compounding while the stock has been flat for years. Its index business, which takes a percentage of AUM from ETFs that track its lists, is capital light, high margin and recurring, with high switching costs; so much of Wall Street runs on MSCI indices that they are nearly impossible to rip out. x.com 

Financial tollbooth businesses are a great place to invest because they are embedded in the system, take a cut whenever money moves or decisions are made, and need little capital. S&P Global and Moody's, tied to credit markets, are hard to replace; FICO is strong but more exposed to pricing backlash; CME gains when volatility lifts volumes; LSEG fits too. MSCI is the favorite, with fees spread across trillions tied to benchmarks for durable pricing power, and insider buying near current prices. … Show more

Costco, Apple, Intuitive Surgical, Alphabet and MSCI are amazing companies priced too high for their growth. Costco trades at 46x earnings on high-single-digit growth, Apple at 32x forward on low-double-digit EPS growth, and Intuitive Surgical at 38x forward on low-teens growth. Alphabet, the most attractive, is 33x operating income excluding investment gains. MSCI is 34x trailing on low-double-digit growth; S&P Global is better, cheaper and extremely high quality with similar growth. x.com  … Show more

MSCI is a very high-quality, founder-led business, but its 10% post-earnings drop warrants only a small buy as its extreme 2019-Covid multiple keeps normalizing. The business has done well, and Henry Fernandez bought about $2.25M of shares at roughly today's price. MSCI may not stay the dominant benchmark for decades, since fund managers can design their own; its main edge was being first to gain traction with international benchmarks. x.com  x.com 

MSCI is a long-term AI winner because AI is a huge tailwind for companies like it. The market is focused on direct AI winners now, but over the long term many more beneficiaries like MSCI will emerge. x.com 

Fair Isaac, S&P Global, Moody's and MSCI are among the best businesses on the planet, amazing to hold for the long term and to beat the market. x.com 

The coming IPO wave led by SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will create wealth that must flow through exchanges, brokers, wealth and alternative managers and luxury brands, still valued below peaks. Rebalancing, margin loans and estate plans run on the same rails that handled the offerings. SpaceX alone brought about $500M in underwriting fees to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and Nasdaq's fast-entry rule forces index buying within 15 days. In the 1990s this plumbing scaled with the money. x.com  … Show more

Strategy could face billions in forced selling if MSCI removes it from its indexes. MSCI is considering exclusion, with its final list due November 11; if it goes through, things could get really ugly for the stock. x.com 

SpaceX looks set to rise before its July 7 Nasdaq-100 inclusion, as passive index buying, a low float and options-driven gamma squeezes power the stock. CRSP, FTSE Russell and MSCI inclusions also force buying regardless of valuation; above $225 it could reach $300, about $4 trillion. After that, the stance turns bearish: as lockups expire and the float grows from about 5%, early investors' selling should overwhelm buying for a loss-making company, so long-term buyers could wait a year. x.com  … Show more

There is a reasonable chance, about 35%, of a 10-15% drawdown in the Nasdaq and Magnificent 7 before year-end, alongside a return of value investing. Jim Chanos' chart reinforces the setup for what triggers a drawdown in tech-dense passive indexes, which buy indiscriminately by market cap when dollars come in and sell the same way when they leave. x.com  x.com