taobanker
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Abercrombie & Fitch is priced far too pessimistically for a company plowing this much into buybacks. The latest print was okay, but the stock is priced as if it were terrible. A post the author replies to calls it a top short, down 40% this year with plenty more room to fall; that makes no sense at the current valuation while Abercrombie is blasting buybacks, more than Alpha Metallurgical Resources is. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Abercrombie & Fitch can define what is cool, while Lululemon is a category leader that would have to change its identity to adapt. Abercrombie executed its e-commerce pivot, cut lower-tier mall exposure and de-emphasized logos, freeing it to be more creative. Fashion retail remains tough, with inventory planned 6-9 months out and price-sensitive consumers, but it trades at 7x earnings, buys back 12% of shares a year and holds $14 a share in cash on a $77 stock. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Abercrombie & Fitch is one of the strongest Stage 2 names outside the AI trade, a rare mix of price action, earnings and valuation. It made a power earnings gap on nearly 10x average volume after a long base, and trades at 12x forward earnings with a $6.5B market cap. x.comÂ
Deckers looks like a value trap, as fashion cyclicality has destroyed many value investors. Revenue is decelerating quickly, EBIT margins are double those of a decade ago, and there has not been a single insider purchase during its 63% drawdown. x.comÂ
American Eagle should do well on earnings, as peers Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch jumped 15% and 40% after theirs. Tariff refunds and weight loss from oral GLP-1 drugs should help, while fashion is shifting away from the COVID-era gym clothes that favored Nike and Gen Z and Gen Alpha are adopting millennial nostalgia. x.comÂ
Gap looks cheap against its cash earnings, trading at 7x when retailers usually get 12x. Fair value is $46.44 to $59.11, or 12x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the $23.48 price 49% below the low end of that range. This is a levels-only read from reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ