Campbell's outlook is deteriorating. It cut its dividend from 39 cents to 25 cents, lowered guidance and said 2027 looks even worse. x.com 

Consumer staples are a lose-lose here because they are already overvalued at 26x forward earnings versus a 22.7x five-year average, the highest since just before the tech bubble burst. With stocks this richly valued, there is little left to rotate into if the economy weakens next year, and the healthcare rotation is well under way. If the economy holds, high rates hurt staples; if it weakens, they are too expensive to hold up even with rate cuts, except perhaps Campbell's. x.com  x.com 

Hershey is a better consumer-staples bet than optically cheaper peers because its strong brand and balance sheet keep it out of dividend-cut risk. @CDInewsletter notes Campbell's just cut its dividend and expects General Mills to follow, as both are too levered, and argues a CPG turnaround bet should be limited to companies with excellent balance sheets. x.com 

McCormick looks cheap against its earnings, at 8x trailing and 15x next year's versus the 18x packaged-food makers usually get. At 18x next year's $3.30 a share, give or take 12%, fair value is $52.21-$66.44 versus $48.20. The case leans on the forecast, with forward earnings 45% above trailing. A pullback zone sits at $36.25 and the stock would be expensive above $82.40. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

J.M. Smucker is underrated because its brands, including Jif, Smucker's, Dunkin' packaged coffee, Milk-Bone, Meow Mix and fast-growing Uncrustables, are bought every week regardless of the economy. Coffee costs, supply-chain inflation and an underperforming Hostess deal hurt this year, but fiscal Q4 revenue rose 6% and adjusted EPS 20% to $2.77. It has raised its dividend 28 straight years, keeps the payout under 50% and still trades below its historical valuation. x.com 

Campbell's is turning from Big Food into Small Food because pricing can no longer offset cost inflation. Every line item that matters got worse: 630 basis points of cost inflation headwinds met only 110 basis points of price, which once again hurt volume by 60 basis points. The stock is at a 23-year low and the company has halted buybacks. x.com  x.com 

J.M. Smucker is worth $150 a share, based on normalized next-twelve-month EPS of $10 and the 15x multiple it usually trades at. x.com