Thierry from arvy
CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing
UnitedHealth collects ever-rising US healthcare spending, and its stock has stopped falling. Family plan costs rose 249% in two decades toward $24,000, US spending nears $10,000 a person, and the over-65 population is set to double to two billion by 2050. After earnings fell 59% and 69% in back-to-back quarters and the stock dropped from 606 to 248, it based near 250 for a year, a Weinstein Stage 1, then reclaimed its moving average and pushed above 400. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's earnings visibility, unusually high dividend yield and resumed buybacks make paying under 16x forward earnings not look terrible. Still reasonably confident it is a good place to hide for long-term capital: Hemsley keeps clearing the bar, and UnitedHealth has beaten and raised guidance for three straight quarters. Further derisking remains a risk. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Healthcare is the clearest place money is moving, and UnitedHealth is the preferred name here. It beat earnings and raised its 2026 profit forecast. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's rebound still has a Medicaid problem because care costs are outpacing state funding. Q3 operating profit rose to $6.6bn from $4.3bn a year earlier, but Medicaid is still expected to lose money in 2026. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's Q2 confirms it is back to underpromising and overdelivering, removing any remaining doubt. Per the quoted results, adjusted EPS of $6.38 beat the $4.85 estimate, the medical cost ratio improved 270 bps to 86.7%, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose to $19.50-$20.00. CEO and congressional share purchases, plus Americans' need for the most important health insurer in the world, bode well for the company and the stock. x.com x.comÂ
UnitedHealth may be making a rare episodic pivot for a stock its size, coming off an earnings beat. The stock is incredibly undervalued. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's debt has to come down to a manageable $20-30B, which would also cut interest expense, and the institutions, TV contributors and big retail accounts pumping it like the next Nvidia are ignoring that. Health insurance is not going away, but the numbers matter more than the hype. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's potential earnings recovery and margin expansion offer a fundamental case for its emerging Stage 2 uptrend. EPS is expected to grow 53%, from $20.47 in 2026 to $31.31 by 2029, while revenue is projected to rise from $448B to $511B; a weekly bull flag has broken out. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's collapse was driven more by fear than fundamentals, making it one of the biggest opportunities in years, reminiscent of Meta in 2022. Fraud accusations led nowhere as the DOJ dropped its investigation, and peers Humana and CVS recovered from the same cost underestimation and beat later. With over $420B in revenue and deep ties to US employers, UnitedHealth is too big to fail and could survive even a fine. That same logic pointed to Berkshire being the undisclosed buyer. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth is exposed as health insurance costs become unaffordable for employers: an industry that lives by price gouging will die by it. US employers face the largest health insurance cost hike since the Affordable Care Act began, with a 25% rise expected in 2027 after a massive drop in exchange enrollment. Employer-based health plans now look set to go the way of pensions and become extinct. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth could be a $600 stock over the next three to five years if margins stabilize, a solid return from here, as the market remembers why it has been a strong long-term compounder. It has scale, Optum, insurance exposure and durable cash flow; the stock was hit by medical-cost pressure, regulation and sentiment, but the business still generates a lot of cash. SoFi and ServiceNow offer more upside, with three-year targets of $80+ and $300+. x.com x.comÂ
