Reddit's US ARPU growth is more impressive than the market credits. It rose 40% since March to $14 per quarter, while trailing free cash flow reached about $1.2B in September. The US daily-user chart is less flattering. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's revenue per share has grown far faster than its stock price: +493.4% versus +178.9%. x.com 

Reddit's Q3 drop in US daily users risks another poor market reaction, even if headline earnings are strong. Last quarter a slight sequential decline in US daily users sent the shares down 20% despite a massive triple beat; the new chart shows a further sequential drop in Q3. x.com  x.com 

Reddit is one of the most compelling opportunities in the market, and today's worries about Google referrals and AI disruption will look like the moment to have bought. Investors fixated on search-referral risk and short-term user growth are missing exceptional financial performance: surging revenue, expanding margins and no debt. It trades at just 19x an estimated $1.7 billion of 2027 free cash flow, supporting a $315 target by early 2027. x.com 

Reddit's fundamentals have disconnected from its share price. Revenue is growing 61%, US revenue per user 51%, and net margin is 31%, yet the stock is down 34% this year. x.com 

Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Reddit still looks undervalued as Needham's Q3 traffic tracker shows app downloads up 19% and web visitors up 2-3% quarter over quarter, adding to strong alternative data behind an expected Q3 beat and raise. Shares trade at 18x next-twelve-month EPS while revenue is growing 60-65% and EPS 65-70% year over year; new Anthropic, OpenAI or Gemini licensing deals remain possible over the next couple of months, not secured. x.com 

Reddit looks attractive after a roughly 44% drawdown left it at about 17.5x forward earnings. x.com 

Reddit's share price is collapsing even as its fundamentals accelerate. Average revenue per US and international user is accelerating, growth is speeding up and the business is showing signs of operating leverage. x.com 

Reddit is well placed as the source every AI model wants to license training data from, while its ad revenue booms. Q2 revenue rose 61% to $804.9 million, operating income more than tripled to $231.7 million and net income reached $252.8 million. At about 17 times two-year forward earnings, the stock isn't expensive. x.com  x.com